After 6 months of unemployment rate being flat at 5% in Poland, it increased in December. Analysts, however, are reassuring, as every year, with the end of the seasonal work, we experience increases during the winter.
Unemployment rate on the rise
After 6 months of unemployment sitting at a flat 5%, the situation deteriorated. A 0.1% increase in the winter months is not too worrying. In the following month, another increase can be expected. Unemployment has its seasonality throughout the year, where at the end of seasonal work, it starts to rise. Winter tourism also employs fewer people in Poland than summer. Traditionally, after the holiday period, it also increases, so another rebound is expected in January. Just as expected are declines with the start of work in agriculture and the upcoming summer tourist season. Therefore, there is no reason to worry about the current increase.
Industrial PMI Indices
Yesterday, we learned the results of the PMI indices for the industry. This is a survey that investigates the level of optimism among managers responsible for orders. It helps to assess the near future in a given segment. If pessimistic moods dominate, it is to be expected that they will decrease orders and cause these worse states. Yesterday’s reading for the euro zone was 46.6 points, so we have a predominance of negative responses. On the other hand, this is both better than the previous reading and expectations. As a result, these data should be assessed as clearly good. It was similar in the USA, although the result reached 50.3 points, which symbolically crossed the threshold separating the predominance of positive responses from negative ones. Good data on both sides of the ocean mean that there is no clear change in the main currency pair.
Canada does not change interest rates
At yesterday’s meeting, the Bank of Canada did not lower interest rates. Looking at the level of inflation, which has been below the level of inflation for 10 months, it could be considered that there is room for such a decision. Despite the positive real interest rates, this country preferred to wait. On the one hand, it probably arises from the desire for a long-term stronger suppression of the pace of price increases. On the other hand, it should be remembered that Canada strongly bases its policy on its only land neighbor. Considering this last regularity, it is very strange that the Bank of Canada meeting is before the FED meeting, instead of following it.
In today’s macroeconomic data calendar, it is worth paying attention to:
14:15 – euro zone – ECB decision on interest rates,
14:30 – USA – GDP,
14:30 – USA – Unemployment claims.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl
