Unemployment, after a brief, slight increase at the beginning of the year, continues its downward trend. In May, the record from the summer of 2023 was matched, with the unemployment rate standing at 5%. The long-term decline in unemployment is mainly due to demographic factors rather than an extraordinary demand for workers. The historic result in May may also be attributed to good weather during the month, two long weekends, and a sudden increase in demand for seasonal workers. Of course, unemployment is strongly regional, with significantly higher rates in the eastern regions of Poland.
When we take a closer look at the qualitative surveys of employers conducted by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), we see that companies mainly intend to maintain their current employment levels in the near future. This means that any fluctuations in the labor market, whether in the unemployment rate or employment levels, will not signal anything extraordinary. These soft surveys are also confirmed by data on job vacancies reported to employment offices, which in May decreased by nearly 4,000 month-on-month.
Commentary by Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert at Lewiatan.
