Ukraine’s accession to the EU will mean significant changes for Polish agriculture and potential problems in the labor market. On the other hand, it is also an opportunity for Polish entrepreneurs, who can participate in the post-war reconstruction of the country. However, the Polish government should show a more active stance and improve its relations with Ukraine, recently deteriorated, – assesses Marek Budzisz, expert in Russian and post-Soviet areas, with Strategy and Future.
“The process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU will take many years. The estimates vary: some point to 2030 as a reference point, others say this is a considerably later date. This stems from the fact that Ukraine’s membership must be approved by all EU member states. The Act of Accession must be ratified by parliaments and bodies of all EU countries. It is a time-consuming process that can be blocked by some member states, which could be linked to Ukraine’s policy as well as to the internal situation of the EU itself,” says Marek Budzisz.
Ukraine applied for EU membership in February 2022, right after the Russian aggression. The European Council quickly, in June 2022, officially granted it the status of a candidate country. In December 2023, EU leaders decided to start accession talks with Ukraine, pointing to significant progress in achieving the goals stemming from the status of a candidate country, despite being under constant attack from Russia.
Formal accession negotiations with Ukraine were inaugurated at the end of June, shortly after the EU Council agreed on a negotiation framework with Ukraine and Moldova, outlining the main guidelines and principles of accession talks with both countries.
The Centre for Eastern Studies notes that the commencement of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine was made possible once Hungary stopped blocking them. This country abstained from voting on opening talks in December last year remains skeptical about admitting Ukraine to the EU.
“Ukraine’s accession to the EU – even if it wasn’t currently at war with Russia – won’t be a simple process. A certain bureaucratic optimist who thinks this is too optimistic,” says the expert. “Ukraine’s accession to the EU will be a long journey, involving deep reforms in the country, including difficult reforms that cannot be carried out in a situation of ongoing, intense war. And this also influences the assessment of Ukraine’s EU prospects. The war must end, Ukraine must have a stable situation, as this allows for reconstruction and profound internal reforms.”
Key to the pace of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU will be reforms concerning basic matters. Beyond changes in Ukraine, reforms within the EU will also be important for the negotiations.
Marek Budzisz emphasizes that these reforms and Ukraine’s joining the Community will have serious consequences for Polish agriculture, not necessarily positive. This sector in Poland is not prepared to compete in the EU market due to its fragmentation.
“The accession of Ukraine will bring not only challenges but also opportunities. However, an active stance of the government is necessary to try to resolve conflicts. In my opinion, the relations between Poland and Ukraine have deteriorated, both during the time of the previous government and currently they do not improve,” assesses Marek Budzisz.
A key factor motivating the Ukrainian authorities to seek EU membership is not only security but also strong public support for this process that has been persisting since 2014 and has reached a record level in June.
The issue of Ukraine’s future and its EU accession will be one of the topics of the ongoing Forum in Krynica. As part of the thematic tracks “Security and Resilience” and “Geopolitics and Geo-economics,” experts will touch upon subjects linked to the war and its course, as well as future scenarios.
