Despite the ongoing war and accompanying geopolitical tensions, Ukraine continues to demonstrate strong economic resilience and a growing openness to investment. Local companies have not only survived the crisis but in many cases continue to grow. This is reflected in forecasts from the National Bank of Ukraine, which expects GDP growth of 4.3% to 4.6%, creating a favorable climate for investor engagement, according to KPMG’s latest report “Your Business in Ukraine” – a practical guide for investing in the country.
Growth Potential and Investment Opportunities – A $486 Billion Reconstruction Plan
Ukraine is showing clear signs of economic recovery. The National Bank of Ukraine projects GDP growth of 4.3–4.6% in 2025–2026. Although inflation reached 8.6% year-over-year in mid-2024, it is expected to gradually decline in the coming year. At the same time, the UN estimates the cost of rebuilding the country after Russia’s invasion at $486 billion over the next decade. This scale of need opens the door to both private and institutional investors, who will play a vital role in Ukraine’s reconstruction process.
With a highly educated workforce, a growing tech sector, and an urgent need for modern infrastructure, Ukraine is now one of the most promising markets in Europe for foreign investors. In 2024, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine declined by 25%, but 71.6% of that came from reinvested earnings—proof of continued commitment from companies already active in the country.
Polish companies are particularly notable in this context: nearly 300 new Polish businesses have launched in Ukraine since the start of the invasion, and Polish exports to Ukraine have risen to €9.4 billion. This demonstrates not only the maintenance of business relations but an active deepening of economic cooperation.
Meanwhile, the European Union plans to allocate €50 billion to Ukraine by 2027, which could significantly boost private sector engagement. The hundreds of billions of dollars needed for reconstruction create an unprecedented opportunity for investors in sectors like construction, energy, logistics, and technology.
“The challenges are obvious, but so is the scale of opportunity. For companies willing to make long-term investments, this could become one of the most strategic markets in the region,” says Iwona Sprycha, Partner in Deal Advisory at KPMG in Poland.
Poland as a Key Trade Partner in Ukraine’s Reconstruction
Disruptions in production and logistics have made imports from neighboring countries increasingly vital. Poland remains one of Ukraine’s key trade partners, with its role as an exporter of advanced products and components becoming ever more strategic.
At the same time, Ukraine’s export recovery is gradually gaining momentum—helped in part by the reopening of trade routes through the Black Sea. This transformation in foreign trade structure creates space for countries and companies ready to engage not just in supply but in long-term rebuilding efforts.
Poland’s exports of machinery, transport equipment, electronics, and chemical products are increasingly important in a wartime economy marked by logistical constraints and disrupted domestic production. In 2023, Ukraine’s net imports were more than three times higher than pre-war levels, underscoring the scale of industrial and economic demand.
Imports now fill critical gaps and in many cases enable the continued operation of essential sectors. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s exports—despite significant declines in transport and consulting services—are beginning to rebound, particularly in technical and trade-related services.
“The reopening of the Black Sea trade route has restored real export capacity. As Ukraine’s trade structure continues to evolve, partners like Poland can not only meet short-term market needs but also play an active role in long-term rebuilding,” Sprycha emphasizes.
