On June 5, the current free trade system between Ukraine and the European Union will expire. Tariff quotas and duties on some agricultural products will return. Until a new long-term trade agreement is concluded, a temporary transitional mechanism will apply: 7/12 of the annual tariff quotas. “These will be difficult negotiations, as this is also a stage of preparing the entire process of Ukraine’s future integration with the European Union,” assesses Minister of Agriculture Dr. Czesław Siekierski.
Before 2022, trade between the EU and Ukraine was based on the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement), effective since 2016. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission adopted autonomous trade measures (ATM) in June 2022, allowing duty-free access for Ukrainian goods into the EU. This support was crucial for a country defending itself against Russian aggression. In 2021, Ukraine earned nearly 41% of its export income from agri-food products, rising to 53% in 2022 and 61% in 2023. Following protests by farmers from neighboring countries last year, the European Commission extended the suspension of tariffs until June 5 this year, but with additional safeguards intended to protect the EU market.
“This opening in a restricted form was introduced in June last year; now, in June, it will end. Quotas and volumes were set, defining the size of imports into the European market. Now that period is ending, and for some time we return to the association agreement,” emphasizes Dr. Czesław Siekierski, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, in an interview with Newseria. “The association agreement provided limited access to the European market for Ukrainian goods, but we know that Ukraine will strive hard for further negotiations to increase its exports to the European market.”
The transitional mechanism will operate on a formula of 7/12 of the annual tariff quotas. This means Ukraine will be able to export part of its agricultural products to the EU up to 58% of the annual tariff quota (proportionally to the remaining seven months of the year). After exceeding these limits, tariffs will apply. The transitional mechanism will remain in effect until new long-term legal frameworks are established.
“We are interested in minimizing Ukrainian exports to the Polish and European markets, but the Ukrainian side says: yes, but Poland has a surplus in exports, so we also want to participate somehow and export our goods. These are difficult negotiations ahead of us, because this is also a stage of preparing the entire process of Ukraine’s future integration with the European Union,” stresses the Minister of Agriculture.
According to European Commission data, the EU is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, accounting for over half of its trade in goods. Last year, the value of Ukrainian goods exported to the EU reached €24.5 billion. The main export commodities by value were grains (18.1% of total exports), animal and vegetable fats and oils (12.5%), oilseeds (10%), and iron and steel (7.8%). For comparison, EU exports of goods to Ukraine amounted to €42.7 billion in 2024, mainly fuels and mineral oils, and machinery. In 2023, Ukraine was the EU’s third-largest source of agri-food imports by value.
With 30 million hectares of very fertile soil, Ukraine has the largest agricultural land area in the European zone and was rightly called the “breadbasket of Europe” before the war. Thus, it is a significant competitor to Polish agricultural exports in EU markets. Data from the Agricultural Market Agency (KOWR) show that revenues from Polish agri-food exports in 2024 rose by 2.7% compared to 2023, reaching a record €53.5 billion, with 74% destined for the EU market.
“Ukrainian agriculture has enormous potential, good soils, large areas, and thus exceptional production capabilities. Technology was transferred from Western countries, from the EU, so efficient machinery and effective, good plant protection products are used. They often use plant protection products no longer allowed in the EU because of their negative environmental impact, but since Ukraine is not yet in the EU, they can apply these, which provides better protection against pests and diseases,” evaluates Dr. Czesław Siekierski.
COPA-COGECA, together with other European agricultural and processing organizations, emphasized in early May that while continuous support for Ukraine is essential, it is equally important to ensure that European farmers and producers do not bear a disproportionate share of the burden of this support. The liberalization of trade with Ukraine has caused many—especially in sectors like grains, sugar, poultry, eggs, ethanol, and honey—to face strong pressure. Producers face falling prices due to market oversupply, shrinking market share, logistical constraints, and rising production costs caused by the war. This threatens their economic profitability and simultaneously allows Russia to exploit the gap left by Ukraine’s absence in key markets in North Africa and Southeast Asia.
“The level of support granted to Ukraine in 2022 after the Russian invasion is subordinated to supporting the Ukrainian economy and budget. Although we often doubt whether this money really reaches the poorer parts of agriculture, the budget, or how much is intercepted by large oligarchs who manage hundreds of thousands of hectares,” says the minister.
