The cryptocurrency market noted a close to a 20% decline in the first weekend of February. The introduction of tariffs by the USA on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China caused a 7% drop in the price of BTC and a loss of over 10,000 USD in value. ETH experienced a correction exceeding 20%. If further actions of this type envelop the EU and are as severe, then bitcoin could record a decrease of over 20% compared to its peaks. The unstable policy of Donald Trump inclines investors towards safer assets. At the same time, the US administration is seeking to create a BTC reserve, and Trump’s environment is actively investing in cryptocurrencies. This may affect higher valuations. Experts from Ari10 believe that we are still ahead of a wave of dynamic increases, which will occur in the next few weeks. Bitcoin may break its current records, and then the rest of cryptocurrencies could follow. Alternatively, if tariff pressure intensifies, local lows below 90,000 USD on bitcoin are possible.
Tariffs blocking cryptocurrencies
The decision of Donald Trump’s administration to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has caused significant shocks in the financial markets. Bitcoin recorded a 7% drop, which is a relatively mild result compared to other cryptocurrencies like Solana, Ethereum, and XRP, which lost up to 20% within a day. Projects with low liquidity suffered the most. They lost a significant part of their value within a few hours. Two weeks after these events, the valuations normalized, but significantly dampened growth in the market. This has affected investor sentiment, which is the worst since the elections in the United States.
– The cryptocurrency market is particularly sensitive to uncertainty, especially when it concerns global economic tensions. The fluctuations we’ve seen in recent days are the result of investors reacting to unpredicted political decisions. The temporary suspension of tariffs for Canada and Mexico led to a partial rebound. This situation has once again highlighted the importance of tracking global macroeconomic events in the context of cryptocurrencies. If the future decisions about imposing tariffs on the EU resemble those from the beginning of February, bitcoin, like the rest of the market, could lose more than 20% compared to its peak values – says Mateusz Kara, a lawyer and CEO at Ari10.
In February 2025, Donald Trump signed a decree introducing so-called reciprocal tariffs, aimed at equalizing US tariffs with those applied by trading partners. This decision will affect the European Union too, raising fears of escalating global trade tensions. From this perspective,the vital aspect will be determining what will be included in the tariffs and which countries – according to the Trump administration – are pursuing negative pricing policies for the USA. In that case, we can expect more turmoil and fluctuations, although – as we know – the unfavorable balance will be mainly with China, Mexico, and the European Union-speculates Ari10’s CEO.
The increasing economic uncertainty causes investors to flee to more stable assets, like the U.S. dollar or gold. This weakens cryptocurrencies. – The most threatened are altcoins and low liquidity projects, which lose the most during such times. Traditional financial markets impose certain brakes on cryptocurrencies, especially in periods of economic pressure. The imposition of further tariffs may continue to the negative sentiments. More and more investors are wondering whether the rally after Trump’s inauguration has lost its momentum and whether the further bull market in cryptocurrencies is indeed preordained. Nevertheless, key players from traditional markets, such as Goldman Sachs or BlackRock, are a significant exception, actively investing in digital assets recently – comments Izabela Mazur, COO at Ari10.
Details matter
The cryptocurrency market has gone through the first moment of euphoria, related to the fact that Trump returning to power promises positive changes for the sector. Investors are counting on Trump to pay more attention to cryptocurrencies and actually take steps to support the industry, e.g., through favorable regulations or reducing pressure on anti-cryptocurrency actions from regulators. – His positive attitude is perceived as a potential growth catalyst. However, further promises without concrete actions may lead to a sell-off of assets, especially given that decisions about buying or selling in the cryptocurrency market are made much faster – warns Izabela Mazur.
The lack of clear stimuli for further growth causes investors to start realizing profits, especially when it comes to altcoins. Sales volumes of smaller projects have surged, which is a typical market caution signal. – Ultimately though, in my opinion, we are still ahead of a wave of dynamic increases, which will happen in the next few weeks. The anticipated value jump of Ethereum, the second cryptocurrency in the rankings, is particularly expected – notes Mateusz Kara.
According to experts from Ari10, a stimulus for further growth could be the Bitcoin reserve creation announced by Trump. The implementation of this project would bring long-term benefits to the entire market. There seem to be increasingly coordinated actions of the US administration towards creating a strategic BTC reserve, which could have a long-term impact on global financial markets. At the same time, at the state level, e.g., in Utah, work is underway on a local Bitcoin reserve.
– The topic is beginning to be treated seriously not only at the national level but also regionally. If these activities gain momentum, the USA could become, after El Salvador, the next country to officially incorporate BTC into their reserve strategies. This is a crucial signal for the market – both in the context of cryptocurrency adoption, their widespread acceptance, and potential long-term macroeconomic consequences – analyzes the Ari10 expert.
Chaos to be controlled
Even though Trump’s actions might seem chaotic, one cannot deny his business intuition. His strategy around cryptocurrencies is pragmatic and focused on maximizing profits. The fact that Trump’s surroundings are actively investing in cryptocurrencies could suggest that they will play a crucial role in the coming months. However, more turbulence and new decisions after the announcement of reciprocal tariffs can cause panic in the markets, and its scale depends on the rationality of the U.S. president.
– Unlike traditional markets, cryptocurrencies price changes faster, which increases their volatility, but also results from smaller market capitalization. Stabilization and predictability of the administration’s decisions could support the growth of the cryptocurrency market, as investor calm favors its recovery – assures Ari10’s CEO.
If the coming weeks bring stabilization, BTC has a great chance to return above 100,000 USD, and in the optimistic scenario – to break current records. On the other hand, drastic decisions can trigger another wave of declines, but they should not last long. So we have two rather extreme cases here, where bitcoin awaits a longer wave of increases or reaching local lows at levels even below 90,000 USD when we hear further key announcements of new tariffs imposition.
– The market is likely to quickly accumulate BTC at lower levels, just like it happened at the beginning of February. Changes should be visible in the second half of February, and particularly in March. Then the topic might get a strong wind in the sails, and if the market sees real institutional support in this, it could be a catalyst for another wave of growth in cryptocurrency values – summarizes Izabela Mazur.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/trump-podnoszeniem-cel-mocno-wywraca-rynek-kryptowalut-80651
