The chaotic and unpredictable tariff strategy of the Donald Trump administration—announcing, imposing, and then suspending tariffs on various sectors and countries—has made it increasingly difficult for businesses to plan and invest in an environment of growing uncertainty. As a result, many companies are delaying investments or stockpiling raw materials and semi-finished goods to maintain operations in the weeks ahead. The U.S. tariffs are also triggering retaliatory duties from affected countries, which in turn slow down global trade and dampen economic growth.
“The actions of the U.S. administration will negatively affect the global economy, particularly in terms of trade flows, which are already being disrupted. The uncertainty caused by Trump’s policies is already affecting business outlooks,” said Marek Wąsiński, Head of the Global Economy Team at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in an interview with Newseria.
“When the U.S. raises tariffs, other countries are forced to protect their own markets as well, especially as global market dynamics shift. Oversupply of some goods could pressure local markets, and barriers to entering the American market will inevitably reduce trade volumes.”
Although direct Polish exports to the U.S. represent only a small portion of total exports—3.6% in January–February 2025, making the U.S. Poland’s seventh-largest trading partner—the U.S.–EU trade war will still have an impact on Polish companies.
According to a January 2025 PIE survey, 20% of Polish exporters in 2024 had shipped products to the U.S., and for 3%, it was their primary export destination. A follow-up survey in March 2025 revealed that about 40% of Polish companies expect the tariffs to affect their business. Their main concerns are a weaker economic outlook in the EU market due to U.S. tariffs (46%) and higher import costs from the U.S. in the event of a trade war (43%).
“We’re already seeing retaliatory moves, such as from China, which has imposed counter-tariffs and restrictions on critical raw materials. These include mandatory registration and licensing for certain exports, as well as investigations targeting U.S. companies operating in China,” Wąsiński noted.
“What we’re witnessing is the weaponization of trade—the use of trade and economic relations as a tool of political pressure. The EU is also preparing its own countermeasures and has announced that it will respond to tariffs on steel and aluminum just as it did in 2018.”
The economist warns that in the long term, all sides lose in a trade war. According to a report by EY, blanket tariffs of 10% on the EU-27 and other countries, 60% on China, and 25% on Canada and Mexico would, by 2027, result in a cumulative GDP decline of 2.0–2.2% in the EU and the U.S.. Canada and Mexico would suffer more due to disproportionately high tariffs, while in Europe, Ireland and Hungary would be the hardest hit (GDP losses of 3.0–3.3%). The impact on Poland’s economy could reach 1.3% of GDP.
Trump’s tariff policy could also backfire on the U.S. itself, especially as the American economy is already showing signs of slowing. Fears of a recession are rising—Goldman Sachs recently reinstated a forecast of a 45% probability of recession. American billionaire Ray Dalio, head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has warned of “something worse than a recession,” pointing to the $1.83 trillion federal budget deficit (5.6% of GDP in 2024).
While U.S. businesses once welcomed Trump’s campaign promises of deregulation and tax cuts, they now fear the negative impact of tariffs, which could erase any gains.
“It’s very doubtful that the U.S. can benefit from a trade war. The U.S. has long been part of a complex network of economic interdependencies that it has also profited from,” said Wąsiński.
“It’s also questionable whether tariffs can achieve Trump’s stated goals, such as reducing the trade deficit. As for reducing the budget deficit through higher customs revenues, tariffs tend to reduce the overall value of imports, which could weaken the dollar and hurt U.S. competitiveness. That’s what worries American businesses, and why many of the current tariffs have already been reevaluated or reversed by the U.S. itself.”
