One of the first major decisions of Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. President was to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. This move, set to take effect on January 27, 2026, has sparked concern among experts. While the decision reflects a negative political stance on climate action, some believe economic realities may still drive the adoption of green solutions, as Trump’s administration is fundamentally business-oriented. Nonetheless, the U.S. withdrawal is likely to influence global public debate on climate change.
Economic Realities Versus Political Rhetoric
“The U.S. is driven by economics. Even if the rhetoric suggests otherwise, economic factors will push for green solutions,” says Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak, an atmospheric physicist and climate expert with the UN Global Compact Network Poland Climate Council.
During Trump’s inauguration, key figures from the business world—including Elon Musk, a leader in electric vehicle manufacturing, and Google, which powers its data centers with green energy—were in attendance. This highlights the tension between populist rhetoric, such as Trump’s famous “Drill, baby, drill,” and the economic incentives of transitioning to renewable energy.
Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak emphasizes that abandoning green policies could even harm U.S. economic interests. Moreover, progressive states like California remain committed to clean energy, with a target of running entirely on renewable power by 2045.
“If you look at the energy emissions map of individual U.S. states, their average emissions are better than Poland’s. If Poland were placed among U.S. states, it would rank as the most polluting,” she notes.
U.S. Emissions Trends and Global Role
The U.S. is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 15–16% of global emissions, behind China (28%) and ahead of India (7–8%). However, U.S. emissions have been declining due to a reduced reliance on coal in its energy mix.
“U.S. emissions peaked in 2007, dipped during the 2008 financial crisis, and fell by about 10% during the pandemic. They’ve remained relatively stable since. The narrative and public statements contrast with the tangible progress in reducing emissions,” Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak explains.
The U.S. energy mix includes significant investments in wind, solar, nuclear power, and natural gas plants, which emit far fewer greenhouse gases compared to coal-fired plants. Importantly, the U.S. has stopped building new coal power plants, putting its energy mix ahead of coal-reliant countries like Poland.
Risks of the U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
The withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which aims to unite nations in combating global warming, could hinder international climate efforts.
“There’s concern about future climate summits. Trump may not attend, or he could actively oppose proposed changes. The Green Climate Fund commits developed countries, historically responsible for emissions, to help developing nations. A major emitter like the U.S. opposing such commitments paints a grim picture,” warns Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak.
The U.S. stance will likely influence global public opinion and shape climate-related discussions worldwide. If this rhetoric translates into regressive actions in the U.S. or other countries, it could have dire consequences for global climate goals.
Challenges in Meeting Global Warming Targets
Efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—as outlined in the Paris Agreement—are already falling short. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures surpassing the 1.5°C threshold for the first time.
The report attributes rising temperatures to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations driven by human activities. In 2024, carbon dioxide levels rose by 2.9 ppm and methane concentrations increased by 3 ppb, bringing annual atmospheric levels to 422 ppm for CO2 and 1897 ppb for methane—the highest in recorded history.
“We need radical measures to reduce GHG emissions, but this isn’t happening. While emission growth has slowed compared to 20–30 years ago, we’re still adding several ppm of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere annually. Global emissions continue to rise, the climate keeps warming, and we’re seeing more consequences of the climate crisis,” Dr. Remiszewska-Michalak concludes.
A Call for Action
Experts stress that without urgent and effective measures, the world is heading toward unprecedented warming by the end of the century. The global response to climate change must be intensified to mitigate its growing impacts. While the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement raises concerns, the resilience of international efforts and the role of individual states like California could determine the trajectory of global climate action.
