Trigon DM analysts have selected 15 companies they believe could stand out in September. The favourites include ORLEN, CD Projekt, Allegro and Budimex, as well as Germany’s Rheinmetall. At the same time, the brokerage is becoming more cautious on the market as a whole. Companies it expects could underperform include mBank, the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Millennium and XTB.
Trigon’s September list includes 14 companies listed in Warsaw and Rheinmetall in Frankfurt. Compared with the previous month, ORLEN has joined the favourites, replacing AB.
ORLEN, CD Projekt and Allegro among the favourites
The September list includes ORLEN, CD Projekt, Allegro, Budimex, Rheinmetall, Benefit Systems, Cyber_Folks, Cyfrowy Polsat, Polimex Mostostal, Rainbow Tours, Voxel, Archicom, Atal, Oponeo and PlayWay.
ORLEN is one of the most notable additions. Trigon points to a favourable macroeconomic environment for the group and the possibility of earnings forecast upgrades for 2026–2028. Analysts also see the potential for high dividends in the coming years, although this remains a forecast rather than a certainty.
The list also shows that Trigon is not focusing only on Poland’s largest companies. The favourites span e-commerce, construction, energy, technology, tourism, real estate and healthcare.
XTB, banks and GPW on the other side
Trigon also identified companies it believes may underperform the broader market in September. These include mBank, Modivo, H&M, CTP, Bank Handlowy, Develia, AmRest, GPW, ING Bank, Millennium, Ten Square Games, Wirtualna Polska and XTB.
XTB is a particularly interesting case. Trigon says it remains positive on the company itself, but after strong results and a powerful share-price performance, much of the good news may already be reflected in the valuation. Analysts also expect third-quarter results to be clearly weaker than in the first half of the year.
Strong earnings, but correction risk is rising
The favourites list does not mean Trigon is uniformly bullish on equities. After a strong August, analysts recommend greater caution.
Inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates are again among the main risks. Bond yields, commodity prices and geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty, increasing the probability of a market correction.
At the same time, company fundamentals remain relatively strong. Trigon expects third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to rise by around 27% year on year, while European EPS growth could reach around 21%.
Poland still looks strong, but is not immune to a global sell-off
Polish indices again outperformed parts of Western Europe in August. The domestic investment cycle and improving data from Germany remain supportive.
Trigon nevertheless warns that even solid local fundamentals would not protect the Warsaw market if global risk aversion rose sharply. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around next year’s budget could also weigh on the zloty and the bond market.
The September report therefore sends a two-sided message: Trigon still sees attractive individual companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, but believes the broader market environment has become more demanding.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. The companies mentioned are selections presented by Trigon DM in its monthly report.
Sources: Trigon DM, PAP Biznes.
