The latest Dun & Bradstreet report shows that Polish wholesale trade, food production, maritime transport and tourism are among the sectors feeling the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz most acutely. The analysis indicates that the greatest disruptions are occurring in the early stages of production and transport chains, which is directly linked to the breakdown in supplies of semi-finished goods, minerals and rare earth metals.
KEY FINDINGS
TRANSPORT (32.31%) – The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is placing the greatest burden on the transport sector, which is directly bearing the consequences of disruptions to key trade routes, including longer routes, delivery delays, and pressure on transport and storage capacity. The crisis is hitting maritime transport companies the hardest (12.47%), as well as the Polish tourism industry, especially travel agencies and tour operators (10.94%).
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (30.1%) – The crisis is directly and indirectly destabilising key conditions for industrial activity, particularly through rising energy prices, raw material supplies and the continuity of supply chains. Regulatory and market uncertainty is making the situation even worse. The disruptions are weighing most heavily on manufacturers of rubber and plastics (3.82%) and chemical products (3.05%), mainly because of the sector’s strong dependence on petroleum-based products, which are essential raw materials used both in production processes and in energy generation. The crisis is also negatively affecting producers of paper and packaging (2.29%) and electronic equipment (1.78%).
WHOLESALE TRADE (16.8%) – Wholesale trade is particularly exposed to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz because transport disruptions directly affect the availability, timing and cost of deliveries, undermining its role as a key link in the distribution chains of both durable and non-durable goods. This applies above all to the wholesale trade of food and everyday consumer goods (15.78%).
BUSINESS AND SERVICES (3.3%) – The crisis and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are also affecting the broadly understood services sector, including finance and insurance. Today, customers may feel these changes mainly through the gradual increase in the cost of services. At the same time, it is worth noting that the services sector is now much better prepared for changing market conditions than it was just a few years ago and is able to adapt more quickly to the new environment. The sectors most affected by the crisis are accounting (1.78%) and the wider financial services sector, including insurance (1.27%), as well as health and education.
RETAIL TRADE (3.29%) – The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the jump in energy commodity prices are directly affecting retail trade and contributing to rising prices in shops. Products such as bread, dairy, meat and oils are particularly sensitive to rising fuel and energy prices because these costs account for a large share of their final retail price. Grocery stores are among the most exposed to the global crisis and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (1.02%). Sharp commodity price fluctuations always cause concern in the retail sector. Retail companies operate on low margins, and the purchasing decision is most often determined by the lowest price. This is why even short-term increases in retail prices are strongly felt.
OTHER (11.93%) – The global crisis and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are not neutral for other sectors of economic activity either. These include real estate trading, the operations of holding companies and investment entities, member organisations, non-governmental organisations, and the broadly defined agricultural production sector, both animal and crop-related.
What do the data tell us?
The study shows the impact of the global crisis on individual sectors of the Polish economy. It identifies a concentration of disruptions at the early stages of the production and logistics supply chain, something particularly visible across all branches of transport, most manufacturing industries, and in the significant impact on wholesale and retail trade. This also means that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz primarily affects the supply of raw materials, minerals and semi-finished goods, which in turn affects production and delivery performance, especially in sectors based on imports, exports and transport dependent on timely deliveries.
METHODOLOGY
The analysis is based on Dun & Bradstreet data relating to Polish companies. It shows the impact of the global crisis on individual sectors of the Polish economy. The published data do not indicate the size of the industries or the scale of the impact, but only identify the sectors in which disruptions are most visible. The division into individual sectors was based on the American classification of economic activity.
