2025 was a year of clear stabilization and recovery for the heavy transport segment after the difficult 2022–2024 period. Data from the Polish Leasing Association (ZPL) show that the value of financing for heavy vehicles increased by 4.4% year on year, reaching approximately PLN 19.7 billion. This growth was supported not only by leasing, but also by the rising use of leasing loans—especially when purchasing used vehicles and specialized fleet configurations—allowing transport companies to finance rolling stock with greater flexibility in financial management.
The improvement in market conditions is also confirmed by registration data published by CEPiK and PZPM. In 2025, the number of first registrations of trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes rose by 6.7% year on year, reaching 29,979 units in the January–December period. In December alone, registrations totaled 2,710 units, representing a 17.8% year-on-year increase. The higher growth rate of registrations compared with leasing indicates both a return of purchases partly financed with cash and the growing role of leasing loans.
Transport companies are returning to investment, and external financing continues to support fleet renewal and expansion.
Cautious optimism and selective fleet investment in 2026
The outlook for 2026 is moderately optimistic, meaning the TSL fleet market is expected to grow, although companies will approach investments cautiously, selecting vehicles primarily based on efficiency and profitability. According to ZPL, the entire leasing market in Poland could grow by around 9% year on year, reaching nearly PLN 130 billion. In practice, this translates into continued, selective fleet renewal, with a focus on vehicles offering better cost and fuel efficiency, as well as increasingly frequent use of financing structures tailored to companies’ needs—helping them manage costs and liquidity more effectively.
At the same time, the transport industry enters 2026 facing challenges such as cost pressure, payment issues, and unstable demand in parts of international transport. Fleet decisions will therefore be made more deliberately. This does not mean investments will be put on hold, but rather that they will be better optimized and concentrated on vehicles that deliver tangible value to transport operators.
Rising demand for financing and a shift in the structure of road transport investment
The 2025 data clearly indicate that demand for financing in road transport is growing again, although with a different structure than before the pandemic. We see a 4.4% year-on-year increase in the value of financing for heavy vehicles (ZPL) and faster growth in registrations than in leasing, which suggests companies are combining different funding sources—leasing, loans, and own funds. The importance of leasing loans is rising, as they enable transport companies to finance used fleets, respond more quickly to changing market conditions, and manage finances more effectively. These observations show that TSL companies are returning to investment, but doing so more consciously and cautiously than during the boom years.
The impact of the National Recovery Plan (KPO) and road investments on heavy transport
The influence of the KPO and infrastructure investments on road transport is indirect and uneven. On the one hand, the scale of funding is enormous—by 2026, Poland could receive as much as approximately PLN 180 billion from EU funds and the National Recovery Plan. These resources genuinely improve the quality of road and logistics infrastructure, increase the capacity of key transport corridors, and enhance operating conditions for carriers in the medium and long term.
At the same time, market data show that infrastructure spending does not translate directly into higher demand for all transport equipment. The trailer segment is one example: in 2025, trailer registrations increased by 12.2% year on year, yet manufacturers specializing in tipper trailers—crucial for infrastructure construction—recorded sales declines. This illustrates that infrastructure investments improve the overall business environment, but do not automatically generate investment demand in road transport. Ultimately, the decisive factors remain actual freight volumes and companies’ profitability.
