Trade wars and escalating geopolitical instability are increasingly seen as major threats to business operations, with economic uncertainty now ranking as one of the most significant barriers to doing business in Poland—second only to rising labor costs. According to recent data, 60% of business owners and managers in Poland identify economic unpredictability as the greatest risk to their operations.
“Crises are as much a shock to the system as they are an opportunity. If we can leverage emerging situations wisely, we have a chance to come out stronger,”
— said Małgorzata Mroczkowska-Horne, General Director of Confederation Lewiatan, during the European Forum for New Ideas in Warsaw.
Instability Disrupts Business Planning
“Any lack of stability is undesirable for business. Predictability is crucial for long-term planning. War brings trauma at all levels—loss of workforce, broken supply chains, and market disruptions that are hard to measure,”
— added Mroczkowska-Horne.
According to the latest Monthly Economic Sentiment Index published by PIE and BGK, rising labor costs were the top challenge for businesses in April 2025, cited by 69% of firms. Economic uncertainty followed closely, with 60% mentioning it—a 2 percentage point increase compared to the previous month.
Throughout Q1 2025, only medium and large companies maintained a sentiment index above the neutral level, indicating overall positive outlooks. In contrast, small and microenterprises showed predominantly negative sentiment, with declines in sales and new orders. Notably, 64% of businesses made no investment expenditures during the period. The rise in geopolitical and economic uncertainty is now directly impacting the labor market, as many companies hold back on investments.
Geopolitical Pressures Intensify
“The war led many workers in Poland to return to Ukraine to fight. It also created uncertainty along Poland’s eastern border—which is also the EU’s border—thus increasing the perceived risk of doing business in this part of the world. This directly raises the cost of operating not only in Poland, but also in Romania and neighboring countries,”
— explained Mroczkowska-Horne.
Despite viewing their own business outlooks more optimistically than that of the economy overall, Polish firms must contend with significant macro-level risks. The chaotic trade policies of Donald Trump have further shaken global stability.
“Unpredictable decisions from Trump shook the world—and this is likely just the beginning. No one expected such moves at today’s stage of economic development, yet they’re happening and having real consequences. Stock markets went wild for a full week, and the losses haven’t even been fully calculated yet. The sheer uncertainty is destabilizing enough,”
— she added.
Imports Rise Ahead of Tariff Uncertainty
Data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that in the first two months of 2025, foreign trade turnover totaled PLN 240.7 billion in exports and PLN 245.7 billion in imports, leaving a trade deficit of PLN 5 billion. Compared to early 2024, exports declined 5%, while imports rose 1.1%.
These figures do not yet reflect the impact of recently introduced and then suspended tariffs. However, Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert at Lewiatan, notes that Polish firms demonstrated pragmatism by stocking up ahead of the tariff increases. In February alone, imports from the United States doubled from PLN 5.8 billion to PLN 13.2 billion, making the U.S. Poland’s third-largest import partner.
“If the trade war escalates, Polish firms will need to find new export markets quickly. Future restrictions will require diversified and reliable supply chains, challenging the logic of the globalized economy we’ve grown used to. This shift will directly impact operational costs, and businesses must now reevaluate cost planning in the new geopolitical reality,”
— said Mroczkowska-Horne.
EU’s Role and Response to U.S. Tariffs
The U.S. imposed 20% tariffs on EU imports, later suspended for 90 days. Should ongoing negotiations between Brussels and Washington fail, the EU may respond with retaliatory measures targeting U.S. digital giants and limiting access to public procurement for American companies.
“The EU, if united and focused on the interests of all 27 member states—not just individual countries—could be a powerful counterweight to Trump’s destabilizing administration. He’s accustomed to exploiting the EU’s lack of cohesion, pushing for bilateral deals at the expense of the Union. But if the EU negotiates wisely, leveraging its 500 million-strong consumer market, it can secure the highest level of safety possible in this environment,”
— emphasized Mroczkowska-Horne.
Crisis as a Catalyst for Change
“History shows that crises are as much about shock as they are about opportunity. If we can capitalize on them—strengthening supply chains, reforming access to raw materials, and making strategic decisions for EU autonomy—we can emerge stronger. But it won’t be a short, easy, or cheap process,”
— she concluded.
