Since the beginning of President Trump’s term, we have observed a clear weakening of oil prices. The Polish zloty is strong, so we can expect falling prices at Polish petrol stations.
In the last three months, the maximum price of oil on futures contracts stood at 82.56 USD per barrel, and the minimum – 70.77 USD. The maximum price applied a week before Donald Trump took office. Since then, it dropped to 79.35 USD on the day he started his presidency, and the declines continued. By the end of the first decade of February, the price of oil stood at 75 USD, seven dollars less than the three-month maximum.
D. Trump emphasized increasing oil and gas production, refining capacity, and exports. He advocates for conventional fuels.
On the demand side, there is a lot of uncertainty because it is not known what will happen to the Chinese economy and what tariffs the US president will introduce.
It seems that D. Trump may have a greater influence on OPEC policy than it was during J. Biden’s presidency. It is possible that OPEC will increase production from April onward.
“The scenario for oil prices is bearish, but new risks arise,” says Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of the Analysis Department at XTB, in a conversation with MarketNews24. “Bringing about a limitation of Russian oil exports could cause prices to rise to the level of 100 USD, but this is not the baseline scenario. At the same time, oil prices can’t fall too drastically if US oil production is to increase, and the marginal cost of increasing extraction in the US is estimated at 65-75 USD per barrel for Brent oil.”
This means that the current prices are below profitability for many new projects, so D. Trump promises to introduce additional tax relief and cheaper land leases.
However, the situation is beneficial for Polish consumers. Not only are global prices declining. We also have a strong zloty, which is all the more interesting in that the dollar is also strengthening against the euro at the same time.
“We had Brent oil above 82 USD/PLN above 4.15, and we have oil at 75 USD and USD/PLN around 4 PLN,” comments M. Stajniak from XTB. “So things are very optimistic, fuel prices at Polish petrol stations should be dropping towards 6 PLN/l and in some regions of Poland, we will see prices below 6 PLN for Pb95.”
Source: https://managerplus.pl/zloty-sie-umacnia-ropa-tanieje-dobre-wiesci-dla-polskich-kierowcow-55574
