Data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and Otodom confirm that over the past five years, transaction prices for developer apartments in Poland’s seven largest cities have risen by around 70%. That’s more than the listing prices, which increased by about 66.5% in the same period. What’s driving these increases despite lower sales and record-high supply? Experts from Otodom point out that the market is not slowing down—it is simply changing in structure and in who is buying apartments today.
Stable Listings, Higher Transaction Prices
At first glance, housing prices in Poland appear to have stabilized. But transaction data—showing what buyers are actually paying—tells a different story: buyers are paying more. Why the paradox, especially when sales have dropped since the 2023 boom?
NBP data shows that in the past five years, transaction prices in the primary (developer) market across Warsaw, Łódź, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk, and Gdynia surged by 71%. According to Otodom, this upward trend continues, with no signs of slowing in Q3 2025. Transaction prices remain firmly on the rise.
This is surprising given that listing prices have leveled off and the number of available developer units is high. In August 2025, there were 62,500 units on the market—22% more than a year earlier. Meanwhile, sales remain below the 2023 peak, which was driven by the “Safe 2% Mortgage” program. Under such conditions, one might expect prices to cool. Instead, the opposite is happening.
“July and August are usually quieter months with stable prices, but this time the market behaved differently. July was the strongest sales month this year, with developer apartment sales across key markets up 59% year-on-year. August also stayed strong, with 3,500 transactions—a 45% increase y/y,” said Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom.
This heightened summer demand pushed transaction prices higher. According to Kuniewicz, the main factor was a series of interest rate cuts.
“Financing conditions are crucial for the housing market, and they have improved in recent months. Lower mortgage rates and higher credit capacity mean more people can afford to buy. That explains why transaction prices are rising even as listing prices stay stable,” she added.
A New Wave of Buyers with Stronger Finances
Stable listings, high availability, and better credit conditions have attracted a new group of buyers. Unlike the 2023 boom—fueled by state-backed mortgages—today’s buyers qualify without government support. Encouraged by improved bank offers and lower rates, they are finalizing deals.
“Apartments are now being purchased mainly by those with solid creditworthiness and financial reserves, who can buy without relying on state programs. This group is reacting to better financing conditions, wide availability, and common discount campaigns. While not a mass segment, their presence is strong enough to stabilize sales and influence transaction prices,” noted Kuniewicz.
Meanwhile, the secondary market is attracting another segment: buyers with smaller budgets. Improved credit conditions help them too, but with greater room for negotiation and discounts, the resale market is more accessible for those unable to afford new-build apartments and finishing costs.
Transactions Outpacing Listings
Since 2020, both listing and transaction prices have risen steadily. Yet NBP and Otodom data show a striking trend: in the last five years, transaction prices have grown faster than listings.
On the primary market in major cities, average listing prices increased by over 66.5% between Q1 2020 and Q1 2025, while transaction prices rose nearly 68%. In cities like Łódź and Wrocław, growth exceeded 70%, outpacing the national average.
The gap is even greater on the secondary market. Across seven cities analyzed by NBP, listing prices rose by more than 57%, while transaction prices jumped 64%. Kraków led the surge, with the average price per square meter of resale apartments soaring over 82%. Importantly, the gap between listings and actual payments has narrowed: in 2020, transactions averaged 14% below listings, but today the gap is only 9%.
“These figures suggest that Poland’s housing market is quite resilient to economic turbulence, with demand still strong. The sharpest increases are in cities like Warsaw and Kraków, where high buyer interest meets limited supply in prime locations,” summed up Kuniewicz.
Source: CEO.com.pl
