On November 27, the forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist coalition representing segments of the Syrian opposition, launched an offensive from Idlib targeting Aleppo. No one anticipated that just 11 days later, they would march into Damascus, marking the abrupt collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Damascus Falls Without Resistance
The Syrian capital fell with almost no resistance. Although there were minor skirmishes in the suburbs, the Syrian Army was already in a state of complete disintegration. A combination of factors contributed to this rapid collapse:
- Demobilization earlier in the year.
- Low morale among the troops.
- Unexpectedly swift advances by HTS forces (Aleppo fell almost immediately).
- Lack of intervention capabilities from key allies like Russia and Iran.
As the regime crumbled, multiple factions seized the opportunity to assert their influence. Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces expanded the Turkish buffer zone at the expense of Kurdish territories. Meanwhile, the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) advanced from the south, and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pushed loyalists away from the Euphrates region.
Internal Uprisings and External Interventions
Amid these coordinated offensives, local uprisings and defections further destabilized the regime. Former rebels who had laid down their arms reignited the fight against Assad. Iran’s limited intervention attempts were swiftly neutralized by Israeli and American airstrikes. Shia militias arriving from Iraq and bases operated by the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) were bombed before they could influence the outcome.
Assad’s Final Miscalculation
Bashar al-Assad initially refused Turkey’s offer for negotiations, instead seeking support from Moscow. Within days, that option vanished. Following a brief conflict near Homs, organized loyalist resistance ceased. Syrian Army units surrendered or fled across borders, some entering Iraq where they were interned.
Recognizing the total defeat, the Syrian Army command urged soldiers to stand down and called for Assad’s resignation. Prime Minister Muhammad Gazi al-Jalali and several ministers surrendered to HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, facilitating a peaceful transfer of power. Assad’s fate remains uncertain—some reports claim he fled Damascus by plane, while others suggest his escape was intercepted near Homs.
Al-Julani: From Terrorist to Pragmatist
Despite his past as an Islamist militant, Abu Muhammad al-Julani demonstrated pragmatism in his new role. He spared Assad’s bureaucrats, forbade attacks on public institutions, and ensured protections for Christians and other minorities. Additionally, he reached an understanding with the Kurds and prioritized essential services like electricity.
Al-Julani’s efforts to reduce conflict and promote stability raise the question: Will Syria achieve a lasting compromise or descend into further civil war, fracturing into smaller Islamist entities?
Russia and Iran: The Biggest Losers of the Syrian Collapse
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a profound geopolitical defeat for Russia and Iran. Both nations invested heavily in keeping the Syrian regime afloat, and their inability to prevent its collapse highlights critical vulnerabilities in their regional influence.
Russia’s Unraveling Influence
Russia’s involvement in Syria began in earnest in 2015, when it launched a military intervention that turned the tide in Assad’s favor. Backed by Russian air power, Hezbollah fighters, Shia militias, and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Assad managed to regain control over much of the country, confining rebels to Idlib province.
Syria was more than just a strategic ally; it was Russia’s most important foothold in the Middle East. The conflict allowed Russia to:
- Project military power far beyond its borders.
- Establish itself as a reliable partner capable of influencing the outcomes of distant conflicts.
- Maintain military bases like the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus naval facility.
However, by December 8, 2024, Russia’s inability to support Assad due to its full-scale commitment in Ukraine led to an inevitable withdrawal. Russian forces, including special units and air contingents, were too stretched to mount any meaningful defense. This inability to act underscored a new reality: Russia could no longer protect its allies while bogged down in Ukraine.
The swift withdrawal of Russian assets and the lack of a coordinated response dealt a significant blow to Moscow’s prestige. Latakia, traditionally an Alawite stronghold, did not resist HTS forces. Instead, jubilant crowds dismantled symbols of the Assad regime. The fall of Tartus and Hmeimim highlighted the collapse of Russia’s Middle Eastern strategy.
Iran’s Strategic Setback
For Iran, the loss of Syria is equally catastrophic. Syria served as a vital link in the “Axis of Resistance”—a corridor connecting Tehran to Lebanon and Hezbollah. This corridor allowed Iran to supply Hezbollah with weapons and maintain strategic depth against Israel.
The collapse of Assad’s regime severs this critical supply line. Iranian assets, including:
- Shia militias crossing from Iraq,
- IRGC bases, and
- Logistic networks,
were decimated by targeted strikes from Israeli and American forces. The inability to maintain a presence in Syria leaves Hezbollah isolated and significantly weakens Iran’s influence in the region.
Furthermore, recent conflicts with Israel severely weakened both Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran’s regional ambitions are now constrained to Iraq and support for the Houthis in Yemen. The once formidable Axis of Resistance is unraveling, leaving Iran geopolitically weakened.
Turkey’s Strategic Victory
In stark contrast, Turkey emerges as a significant winner. By supporting HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA), Turkey expanded its buffer zone, pushing back against Kurdish forces and securing its southern border. Turkey’s maneuvering ensures it remains a dominant player in the region’s future.
Geopolitical Fallout and the Shifting Balance of Power
The United States: A Strategic Reassessment
The collapse of Assad’s regime also presents an opportunity for the United States to solidify its position in the Middle East. After years of cautious engagement, Washington now finds itself in a favorable position. The U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) played a role in Assad’s downfall, demonstrating that strategic support for proxies can yield tangible results.
Donald Trump, set to return to the presidency in January 2025, has characterized the events in Syria as a “humiliating defeat for Russia”, attributing it to Russia’s overextension in Ukraine. Trump’s administration appears poised to maintain firm support for Ukraine while leveraging Syria’s outcome to pressure Russia further. In a recent meeting in Paris with Volodymyr Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron, Trump underscored a renewed commitment to containing Russian influence.
The U.S.’s ability to support allies without large-scale military intervention will likely shape its future Middle Eastern policy. With Russia and Iran weakened, the U.S. may find it easier to promote stability and curtail terrorism in the region.
Israel: A Strategic Victory
For Israel, the collapse of Assad’s regime and the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah are strategic victories. Israel has long viewed Iran’s presence in Syria as an existential threat. By targeting IRGC positions and supply lines, Israel significantly contributed to Iran’s strategic isolation.
Israel’s actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon and its broader campaign against Iranian proxies have now borne fruit. With Iran’s influence curtailed, Israel can focus on consolidating security along its northern border and reducing the risk of a major regional conflict.
The Future of Syria: A Fragile New Order
The immediate future of Syria is uncertain. Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the HTS leader, is presenting himself as a pragmatic figure, extending olive branches to various factions. His initial steps have included:
- Protecting minorities, such as Christians.
- Avoiding reprisals against former Assad officials.
- Ensuring essential services like electricity.
- Releasing political prisoners.
- Inviting refugees to return.
However, challenges remain. The potential for renewed conflict looms large, especially if Turkey, the Kurds, and various rebel factions fail to reach a long-term settlement. The question remains: Will Syria find a path to stability or fragment further into smaller, warring entities?
Russia and Iran: Broader Implications
The collapse of Assad’s regime is not merely a regional event; it signifies a broader decline in Russian and Iranian influence. Russia’s inability to support its ally in Syria casts doubt on its reliability as a strategic partner. This failure mirrors its reluctance to aid Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, signaling a broader pattern of strategic retreat.
For Iran, the loss of Syria severs a vital connection to Hezbollah, weakening its regional strategy. With its influence confined to Iraq and Yemen, Iran faces a diminishing role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The failure to protect Assad may lead to internal questions about the effectiveness of Tehran’s foreign policy.
The Road Ahead
As the dust settles in Syria, several key questions emerge:
- Can HTS maintain stability and avoid descending into extremism?
- Will Turkey and the Kurds find a sustainable agreement?
- How will Russia and Iran adapt to their diminished roles in the Middle East?
- Will the U.S. leverage this shift to strengthen its influence in the region?
The collapse of Assad’s regime serves as a stark reminder that even entrenched powers can crumble swiftly when external support falters. As Syria stands at a crossroads, the coming months will determine whether the country can achieve a fragile peace or fall into another cycle of war and fragmentation.
