The presidential campaign in the United States, abundant in historic events, is coming to an end. Symbolically, the elections will be settled on Tuesday, November 5, but the final decision will be made by the Electoral College in December. The result will be determined by votes in the so-called swing states, which traditionally do not support either Democrats or Republicans. The latest poll indicates a slight advantage for Kamala Harris in the majority of these districts. There is a risk that Donald Trump will not accept an unfavorable election result for himself, as was the case four years ago.
“The 2024 US presidential campaign was definitely unique, historic, will certainly find its place in textbooks, at least its elements,” says Tomasz Płudowski, Ph.D., Professor at the Academy of Economic and Humanistic Sciences, from the Newseria Business news agency. “I cannot recall any other campaign where there were more unusual, historic events, such as an assassination attempt on a US presidential candidate or a resignation of a candidate during the campaign, after the primaries, but before the main elections. Thirdly, the candidate herself, who belongs to three minorities, being a woman, being African American, and there has not yet been a president of Hindu origin.”
The specificity of American presidential elections is that they are indirect, meaning voters in each state formally vote for electors from the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or another candidate. There are a total of 538 electors (each state has a set number of electors), and to become president, one must secure the support of 270 of them. Electors meet in their respective states on December 17 to select the president. In 35 states, the law requires electors to vote according to the result of voting in their state, while the rest of the electors can theoretically cast their vote based on personal preference. Achieving the highest number of votes on a national scale does not equate to winning the election.
“The downside of this system is that the so-called swing states decide the outcome. Generally speaking, these are the states in two belts, the Rust Belt in the north and the Sun Belt in the south, including Arizona,” explains Dr. Płudowski. “It is always those states that ultimately decide, despite the fact that the elections are held nationally. Therefore, it does not make sense to consider the level of support across the country because it does not decide the outcome, but rather you have to look at the support in the swing states. It is close and either of the candidates can win.”
The so-called swing states include Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. The latest poll conducted for The New York Times suggests that in Nevada, Donald Trump can expect 46% of support, and Kamala Harris 49%, in North Carolina the support is 46% and 48% respectively, and in Wisconsin, it is 47% and 49%. The Democratic candidate also leads in Georgia with 48% compared to 47% for her Republican rival, and in Pennsylvania, both can expect 48% of votes. The survey also points to a tie in Michigan, where both candidates have 47% support. Donald Trump, on the other hand, leads in Arizona, where he can expect 49% support, while Kamala Harris only has 45%.
Meanwhile, in a poll published on Saturday by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom in Iowa, where Donald Trump won decisively both in 2016 and 2020, the results suggest that voters lean towards electing the Democrat by a margin of 47% to 44%.
“Voters may be motivated to go to the polls by the stakes – if their candidate skillfully presents them the stakes of these elections, what could happen if the other side won, how they differ programmatically, and what they are fighting for,” says the professor of the Academy of Economic and Humanistic Sciences in Warsaw. “Voters should be made aware that these are not elections like any other. Sometimes politicians exaggerate the threat, but currently, the differences are quite large.”
Donald Trump advocates for the introduction of 60% tariffs on goods from China and 10% from other countries, including the European Union. Economists warn that this will result in higher prices. Both the Republican and the Democrat promise to continue the fiscal stimulation carried out by Joe Biden’s administration, which has led to a deficit reaching 5% of the GDP, even in a good economic upturn. From the perspective of Europe, especially Central and Eastern Europe, a crucial point is the possible halt to support for Ukraine struggling with the Russian invasion, in case Trump wins. An additional threat is the non-recognition of the elections by one of the sides if the result is unfavorable to them.
“It is more likely that Donald Trump will not accept the election result if he loses, because he has such a history. He is a person who does not recognize democratic institutions and is ready to take various steps, such as undermining democratic institutions, such as the courts or the media “, assesses the Americanist. “However, I think that Kamala Harris will not question the election result, unless there is evidence of this, if we had recordings, tapes, knew about any irregularities and it would be known that they affected the difference in the result, not only increased, decreased, but also changed the winning person. I think the Democrats wouldn’t be as compliant as Al Gore was in 2000 when he handed over power to George Bush for the sake of the country, to maintain peace, although there were various doubts.”
