The office market is entering a period of intensified qualitative and financial verification. Decisions regarding new developments, refurbishments, or leasing are now underpinned by more thorough analyses and hard calculations. This trend is set to intensify in 2026.
New office supply in Poland remains very limited, with the number of projects under construction falling to the lowest levels in years. The economic equation does not favor new office investments. High financing and construction costs—amplified by stringent ESG requirements—are key barriers to delivery.
Today, RFPs increasingly require hard data such as energy consumption, carbon footprint, and indoor air quality. While EU regulations remain flexible and timelines and ambitions are being adjusted, this further rewards rigorous business calculations over declarations.
In practice, developers holding prime inner-city plots often avoid purely office schemes unless complemented by residential or service uses. For tenants, this means fewer prime, office-only addresses and longer waiting times for new space.
Looking ahead, only well-planned projects in top locations with credible commercialization strategies—most often mixed-use—will come to market. The shortage of high-quality office space, particularly acute in Warsaw, may stimulate developer activity over the longer term, but this is likely to be a gradual evolution rather than a sudden turnaround.
Offices Give Way to Residential Uses
At current yields, with relatively low office rents and limited investment demand, office projects struggle to compete with residential developments. Developers have slowed office construction and are pivoting toward housing. The reason is straightforward: lower office rental income in Poland compared with Western Europe, alongside more comparable residential yields. Capital favors assets that are easier to sell and finance, with a more attractive risk profile.
Older office stock is increasingly converted to other uses rather than refurbished or replaced with new office buildings. Investor decisions are driven by pure pragmatism. In many cases, renovating aging offices—especially energy-intensive buildings with inefficient layouts in weak locations—is simply uneconomic. Every additional zloty spent on systems or façades fails to translate into higher rents or demand. In such cases, an honest assessment points to change of use or disposal, rather than cosmetic fixes. Greenwashing no longer works.
The gradual demolition of older office buildings and their replacement with residential developments is shrinking office stock in major cities—most notably Warsaw. Redevelopment-led projects proceed only where the numbers clearly add up, delivering lower operating costs and stable leasing liquidity. As a result, in 2026 the competitive edge will favor strong products with hybrid functions.
Prime Address vs. Strategic Economics
Tenant demand is strongest for modern offices in top locations, which maintain stable—and in some cases slightly rising—rents. At the same time, available space in other market segments is systematically contracting. The challenge today is not only securing large floorplates, but also mid-sized modules, particularly in Warsaw. For tenants, this necessitates earlier lease processes, typically 12–18 months before current contracts expire.
In increasingly demanding business conditions, companies are more often choosing between a top-tier location and premium-standard space, or a modernized building offering functionality and acceptable comfort at a more reasonable budget. The decisive factor is the business trade-off over a 5–7-year horizon.
Accordingly, negotiations must extend beyond headline rent to include fit-out budgets, turnkey works, rent schedules, and space flexibility—i.e., rights to expand or contract occupied area during the lease term.
Flexible Leasing Models
Organizations are increasingly implementing scenarios that support the return-to-office trend, alongside solutions enabling work across distributed office locations.
The shift toward flexible office space is becoming a standard element of leasing strategies. Across Poland’s seven largest cities, flex stock totals around 420,000 sq m, with market share in Warsaw and Kraków at just 4%. This remains modest compared with Western Europe, where flex accounts for around 20% of stock—highlighting significant growth potential in Poland.
The flex format works well for market entry, project-based work, and pilots, as well as for day-to-day team operations. In 2026, many organizations will combine multiple office models while increasing pressure for employees to return to offices. After years of hybrid work, the office once again plays a central role in building relationships, organizational culture, and effective collaboration. Spaces that support interaction, good acoustics, lighting, and everyday amenities are gaining importance.
In 2026, competitive advantage will favor tenants who adopt shorter decision horizons, opt for flexible leases, and are ready to rapidly adjust strategies in a dynamic market environment.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/rynek-biur-2026-strategiczny-pragmatyzm-w-inwestycjach-44718
