Although March brought negative macroeconomic consequences related to the war in the Middle East, the developer housing market recorded an unexpected revival on the demand side. According to preliminary estimates, sales in Poland’s seven largest cities increased by 19% compared with February, while average asking prices rose in Warsaw, the Tri-City area, Wrocław, and Poznań. The situation is commented on by Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom.
In line with forecasts made at the beginning of the year, sales in March turned out to be better than in both February and January. However, as Katarzyna Kuniewicz admits, the scale of the increase on the demand side of the market came as a surprise.
“First and foremost, already in March the war in the Middle East clearly triggered negative macroeconomic effects in the environment surrounding the Polish housing market. CPI inflation and WIBOR 6M—the two most important factors affecting demand for housing loans—both increased compared with February. Despite this, sales of developer-built homes across the seven largest housing markets in Poland (Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, the Tri-City area, Warsaw, and Wrocław) reached 5,100 units in March, which was 19% higher than the comparable preliminary result for February and 40% above the preliminary result for March 2025,” explains the Head of Market Research at Otodom.
In March, not only was the number of homes sold higher than in February, but the number of units launched for sale also increased. Since the number of homes introduced in new developments in February had been relatively low, the month-on-month increase in current supply was clearly stronger than the increase in sales and amounted to 140%. In March, developers launched sales of 3,600 units across 102 new projects or project phases in the seven largest markets.
“It is worth noting that for the second consecutive month in March, the number of homes sold during the month was clearly higher than the number of homes launched for sale. As a result, the total offer across the seven largest markets shrank once again. At the end of March 2026, it fell below 59,000 units, to 58,900. However, if we also include units offered by developers in the metropolitan areas surrounding Poland’s largest cities, supply reaches nearly 74,600 homes,” adds Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
More reservations, but also more uncertainty
Although developers sold 1,500 more homes in March than they added to their offer, the number of homes available on the market declined by only 700 units. This points to intensive shifts between the stock of available homes and reserved units.
“For several months now, we have been observing a growing number of reservations on the housing market, which clearly indicates rising purchase interest, but at the same time also serves as evidence of growing anxiety on the demand side,” says Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
The relationship between homes launched and sold in March across individual markets shows that alongside cities with a clear demand advantage over current supply—Warsaw, Łódź, Wrocław, the Tri-City area, and Katowice—there were also markets displaying the opposite trend, namely Kraków and Poznań.
How quickly is developers’ inventory selling out in the largest cities?
Although the aggregate supply level at the end of March declined by 1% compared with February, the oversupply of developer-built homes in several of Poland’s largest cities remains a fact.
The continued wide choice available to buyers, combined with improving sales momentum, is reflected in inventory absorption indicators, which changed in March across almost all markets compared with February, with the exception of Łódź.
The biggest drop in the inventory sell-out time indicator was recorded in Katowice. However, the ratio of sales to available supply shows that this market still remains in a state of considerable oversupply. A clear reduction was also recorded in Wrocław and Warsaw, where March sales turned out to be the strongest in many recent months.
“Only in Kraków can we speak of a clear extension in the time needed to sell out the available offer compared with February. It is worth stressing, however, that this change was primarily the result of the large number of homes launched onto the market in March, rather than weaker sales,” explains Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
The end of hopes for cheaper homes?
Otodom’s Head of Market Research emphasizes that the average prices of homes offered by developers at the end of March may come as a surprise, as they undermine the thesis that the time has come for price reductions.
“In four of the seven analyzed cities, we recorded an increase in average asking prices in March. However, while such changes had already been seen in Warsaw and the Tri-City area over the previous several months, the rise in asking prices in Poznań and Wrocław is a relatively new phenomenon,” adds Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
There is no doubt, however, that the durability of these increases should not be assessed until at least the end of April. Many signs suggest that only then will the first negative effects of the war in the Middle East become visible on the Polish housing market.
