Over the past decade, more than 1.7 million new housing units have been built in Poland. Yet the commonly repeated claim remains that the country is short by 1.5 to 2 million homes, placing it among the least saturated housing markets in Europe. So, what’s the real situation? The honest answer is: it depends – because, as the saying goes, “the devil is in the details.” In reality, calculating the housing gap is complex due to the constantly shifting variables that influence it.
On one hand, the housing shortage might no longer exist. On the other, when viewed through the lens of new societal needs, rising living standards, and shifting mid- to long-term trends, the deficit could actually be quite large. For example, when the most recent conflict between Israel and Palestine broke out, real estate prices in Israel increased – but only for one specific type of housing, while others failed to attract buyers. This illustrates the core issue: demand hinges on specific niches within the housing supply.
Although building housing in Poland is neither easy nor predictable, the country has been a paradise for developers and investors for over 30 years. A key factor has been strong demand and relatively attractive profit margins. And that remains the key to future development success: building what people truly need.
A Gap of 300,000 or More?
A recent report by experts at Alior Bank sparked intense discussion within the industry. The report estimated that Poland’s total housing gap is now only 300,000–400,000 units, and at the current pace of construction, the deficit may disappear by 2028. However, these figures may be misleading. For example, Poland had 1.8 million vacant homes in 2021 according to the national statistics office (GUS) – including over 200,000 in Warsaw alone.
Adding to the complexity, over 60,000 concrete slab blocks (a hallmark of Poland’s post-war architecture) require urgent renovation. And housing demand is further shaped by shifting factors: changes in the labor market, lifestyle evolution, housing policy (including social housing programs), migration patterns, and new zero-emissions requirements for buildings.
Why So Many Investors?
The lack of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in Poland prevents small and medium domestic investors from easily accessing the broader property sector – especially commercial real estate. As a result, Poles focus almost exclusively on residential housing as a means of capital allocation.
According to JLL, approximately 45% of all home purchases in Poland are made for investment purposes. That means nearly half of all transactions are by buyers who do not intend to live in the property. A National Bank of Poland (NBP) report supports this, finding that 70% of surveyed buyers acquired housing as an investment, and only 30% for personal use.
These numbers vary by region – investment-driven purchases are more common in larger cities, while in smaller towns and rural areas, more buyers purchase for their own needs. If REITs (in Poland: SINNs – companies investing in rental property) were finally introduced, they could give ordinary Poles access to earnings from offices, hotels, and retail centers – reducing pressure on the housing market and improving affordability.
Future Lies in Specialized Niches
The transformation of Poland’s real estate market is perhaps best reflected in the building featured in the photo accompanying the original article. Built in the 1970s for high-ranking officials of the socialist regime, this brick apartment block was once the pinnacle of luxury – not made from prefabricated panels, like most of its era. Nestled in Warsaw’s prestigious Kozia Street, just a short walk from the Presidential Palace and Grand Theatre, the building today elicits curiosity rather than admiration.
This illustrates the market’s evolution: a growing focus on premium housing, improved design standards, and higher construction quality. Once, underground parking was a luxury; today, buyers seek city views and private spas.
Looming Shortage of Senior Housing
Demographic trends suggest the total number of dwellings will increase over time – due to inheritance-driven ownership transfers. But before that happens, Poland is headed for a major shortage in senior housing. One urgent issue is the problem of “fourth-floor prisoners” – elderly residents stuck in walk-up apartment buildings from the 1960s and 1970s without elevators.
This presents a new challenge for developers: adapting housing supply to the needs of older residents. Curiously, even in periods of population decline, housing shortages can persist. Why? Because depopulation leads to a mismatch between available housing types and what remaining residents need. It also discourages infrastructure investment, making it harder to attract new tenants.
Rising construction and land costs, combined with low housing availability, could worsen the issue. Yet one thing remains constant: people have built homes for millennia, and there’s no sign they’ll stop now.
About the Author:
Adam Białas is an economic expert, real estate and construction market specialist, business journalist, and managing director at Bialas Consulting & Solutions.
Source: managerplus.pl – Housing Gap in Poland: Myth or Real Problem?
