The gold market has shown extraordinary momentum in the early months of the year, repeatedly reaching historic price highs. On Friday, March 14, gold soared past $3,000 per ounce, surpassing the target analysts had set for the entire year of 2025.
This unprecedented bull run in the precious metals market is driven by growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, making gold an increasingly attractive safe-haven asset. Analysts highlight several key factors fueling the price surge of the precious metal:
- Economic uncertainty in the U.S. – The rhetoric from President Donald Trump’s administration regarding a potential recession is causing turmoil in financial markets. Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Bank of America, have raised their recession probability forecasts for the U.S.
- Trade wars – The escalation of tariff disputes, particularly between the United States and the European Union, as well as trade tensions with China, Canada, and Mexico, is adding to investor anxiety.
- Central bank purchases – Government institutions continue accumulating gold. In February 2025, Poland’s National Bank (NBP) purchased an additional 29 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to nearly 480 tons.
- Monetary policy uncertainty – Ambiguity surrounding the direction of interest rate policies by major central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, which may return to rate cuts in response to declining inflation and recession risks.
- Geopolitical tensions – Ongoing armed conflicts, including the situation in Ukraine, and economic rivalry between the U.S. and China are further driving investor interest in safe-haven assets.
$3,500 per Ounce Possible This Year
Analysts at Macquarie Group predict that gold prices could reach as high as $3,500 per ounce this year. This is a significantly more optimistic outlook than earlier forecasts from major investment banks, which estimated prices between $3,000 and $3,300. Goldman Sachs now projects a price near $3,300, while Citibank previously anticipated a swift climb to $3,000—a milestone that has already been reached.
Central banks worldwide continue their gold purchases, further supporting price growth. In February, the National Bank of Poland acquired another 29 tons of gold, bringing Poland’s reserves close to 500 tons—the target set by NBP to have 20% of the country’s foreign exchange reserves in gold. In 2024 alone, Poland’s central bank bought 90 tons of gold, and in just the first two months of 2025, it has already acquired more than 30 tons.
When Will the NBP Cut Interest Rates?
NBP President Adam Glapiński recently stated during a press conference that he sees no room for interest rate cuts in the near future, which significantly impacts the local gold market. However, bankers have a different perspective, expecting rate cuts in Poland in the coming months.
Bank Millennium predicts a rate cut in July this year, while ING Bank Śląski leans toward September. According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, significant rate cuts—nearly 2%—could occur in Poland between June and July 2025, just after the country’s presidential elections.
Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
The gold market is in a dynamic growth phase, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, recession fears, and central bank actions. Analysts emphasize that in the long run, gold remains an attractive investment option, particularly amid global economic instability.
The upward trend in gold prices may persist for an extended period. Investors should closely monitor developments, especially concerning decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates and the economic policies of both the U.S. and the European Union.
Michał Tekliński, Gold Market Expert, Goldsaver.pl, Goldenmark Group
