In the early days of his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, effective February 1. While there are no specific details yet regarding European Union (EU) goods, similar “threats” surfaced during his election campaign and a recent speech at the Davos summit. According to the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), it’s only a matter of days, weeks, or months before tariffs targeting the EU may follow. Such a move could significantly impact EU–U.S. trade relations.
“During his campaign, President Trump discussed the possibility of imposing new tariffs on goods, products, and services from the EU to protect the domestic market. So far, this rhetoric hasn’t materialized in any decrees, but we’ll see if new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are indeed implemented starting February 1,” said Michał Kobosko, Member of the European Parliament from Polska 2050, speaking to Newseria.
Trump has proposed tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China. Analysts at PIE note that these measures are more cautious than those outlined during his campaign. While the EU has been spared so far, they warn this may change in the coming days, weeks, or months, given Trump’s repeated criticism of European trade surpluses with the U.S. Details about potential tariffs, such as their scale or whether they would uniformly apply to all member states or target specific sectors, remain unclear.
“If the U.S. does impose new tariffs on our products and services, Europe will face the tough decision of whether to retaliate with similar measures on American goods flowing into Europe. Such a trade conflict would be disastrous for our relationship. The EU and the U.S. are each other’s closest partners, and this dynamic must not change. It is in the geostrategic interest of both Europe and the United States to maintain this partnership,” Kobosko emphasized.
Economic Impact of Tariffs
According to EY data cited in a PIE analysis, new U.S. tariffs on EU exports could shrink the EU economy by 2% by 2027. Experts believe American tariffs would primarily affect Germany, one of Poland’s key trade partners, indirectly impacting Polish suppliers as well.
“The initial executive orders signed by President Trump suggest he intends to govern and position the U.S. on the global stage in a radically different way than his predecessors. So far, Europe hasn’t been a central focus, but we can only base our expectations on what was said during his campaign. The President clearly struggles with the concept of the EU as a unified entity and prefers bilateral agreements with individual countries. This approach is unacceptable for us because we stand as a united European Union,” Kobosko stressed.
Uncertainty Beyond Trade: Security Concerns
Just as U.S. trade policy toward the EU remains uncertain, so does its approach to security issues. Kobosko warned that Europe must prepare for the possibility of a reduced U.S. military presence on the continent and diminished military aid to Ukraine.
“In today’s geopolitical climate, the EU has no choice but to invest more in defense, strengthen its defense industry, collaborate more closely with NATO, and prepare for conflict to deter potential aggressors from the East—primarily Putin, who harbors dangerous plans for Europe,” said the MEP.
Call for Stronger European Defense
This sentiment was echoed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during his presentation of Poland’s EU Council Presidency priorities at a European Parliament session last week. Tusk stated that the U.S. President’s remarks should motivate Europe to become stronger—not only by strengthening alliances but also by increasing its own defense capabilities and raising spending in this area.
“Europe must work toward deterring aggression while preparing for any challenges ahead,” Tusk urged.
