Ten years have passed since the Brexit referendum. Although the United Kingdom did not experience the collapse predicted by some observers, leaving the European Union has weakened the British economy. Estimates suggest that GDP per capita is now 6–8% lower than it would have been had pre-Brexit trends continued. The decision also contributed to major problems in trade. Poland remains an exception: unlike most EU countries, it has expanded the scale of its trade with the United Kingdom.
“Together with the Sobieski Institute and many experts, we sought to present a balance sheet ten years after the Brexit referendum, but five years after the United Kingdom’s actual departure from the European Union. This balance is mixed. On the one hand, there was no catastrophe of the kind predicted by Brexit opponents. On the other, the UK cannot claim that the past decade has been outstanding or that it has successfully replaced the single market with other markets around the world,” says Dr Arkady Rzegocki, Professor at the Jagiellonian University, former Polish Ambassador to the United Kingdom and Ireland, and co-author of the report A Shrinking Power.
“The assessment is therefore mixed, but rather negative. The British economy has shrunk.”
Before 2016, the United Kingdom was one of the most dynamic large economies in the European Union. During the following decade, however, it grew markedly more slowly and began to lag behind other developed countries.
According to the Sobieski Institute and Deloitte report, A Shrinking Power: Ten Years After the Brexit Referendum — An Economic, Political and Social Assessment of the United Kingdom, the decision to leave the EU reduced British prosperity by 6–8%. This translates into lower public-sector revenues of between GBP 75 billion and GBP 100 billion a year.
“Brexit has also created greater difficulties in exporting British goods, especially to the European Union, but it has caused certain problems in services as well. Services have performed much better, particularly financial services, but when it comes to trade, the differences are clearly unfavourable,” Professor Rzegocki explains.
“The United Kingdom has not succeeded in replacing EU markets. This is why, according to experts, the British economy has lost 6–8% of GDP per capita over this period.”
Trade with the EU has weakened
In 2024, UK goods exports to the EU were 16% lower than in 2018, representing a decline of GBP 35 billion. Goods exports to non-EU countries fell by 8%, or GBP 18 billion.
Data from the UK Office for Budget Responsibility cited in the report indicate that the current trade model between the UK and the EU will reduce the long-term productivity of the British economy by around 4% compared with the scenario in which the country had remained in the EU. Both exports and imports are expected to be around 15% lower than in the counterfactual scenario.
The volume of food exports from the UK to the European Union in 2024 was approximately 34% lower than in 2019. The British automotive industry has also been affected. Passenger-car production in the United Kingdom fell from 1.67 million units in 2016 to 717,300 units in 2025.
The country is now outside the world’s top ten car producers, losing a position it had held continuously for decades. The EU remains the largest market for UK car exports, accounting for 55.4% of the total, but the trend remains negative.
“We are, however, discussing a period in which Brexit was only one of several major factors affecting the British economy. The second was the COVID-19 pandemic, while the third — which had a particularly strong impact on energy prices — was Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine,” says the Jagiellonian University professor.
Poland remains an exception in UK trade
Professor Rzegocki stresses that the slowdown in trade with European partners does not apply to Poland.
“Our trade exchange continues to grow, although recently it has been expanding more slowly than before,” he says.
Poland remains one of the United Kingdom’s most important economic partners in Central Europe. The UK is still Poland’s fourth-largest export market. Polish exports to the United Kingdom increased from around GBP 12.5 billion in 2016 to just over GBP 20 billion in 2025, while imports during the same period grew from approximately GBP 7 billion to around GBP 13 billion.
The United Kingdom also remains an important source of investment and technology for Poland.
“In the Sobieski Institute report, we place strong emphasis on the fact that, during this challenging decade of disruption, Polish-British relations have remained a bright spot. There has been a rapprochement described as a strategic partnership,” says the former Polish Ambassador to the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Security partnership strengthens Polish-British ties
Despite leaving the EU, the United Kingdom has remained one of the pillars of European security — something made particularly clear by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
On 27 May this year, the two countries’ prime ministers signed the Treaty on Security and Defence Partnership at RAF Northolt. It provides for cooperation in areas including the military, defence industry and cybersecurity.
According to the report, the strategic partnership is based on a shared assessment of threats, defence and industrial cooperation, and a fundamental shift in the British perception of Poland.
“The British have become more interested in Poland than ever before, including in our shared history. In fact, British media publish interesting articles about our country almost every day. We should use this to further strengthen interest in Poland among British elites and society,” Professor Rzegocki argues.
According to the report’s authors, Poland was still associated mainly with migration and Central and Eastern Europe in 2016. A decade later, it is increasingly seen as a country playing a key role in European security and as a “humanitarian power” that provided effective assistance to Ukraine and refugees.
Poland is also viewed by Britons as an example of economic success.
The rise in Poland’s importance and the shift in perceptions of Poles have taken place despite a significant decline in the number of Polish immigrants in the United Kingdom. It is estimated that around 200,000 Poles have left the UK since 2018. Some estimates suggest that as many as 400,000 people have left, most of whom returned to Poland.
The report’s authors argue that Poland should make more active use of British soft power to strengthen its own international position. They note that it remains one of the world’s most effective instruments of influence.
Brexit as a lesson for Europe
Brexit was the largest case of voluntary economic disintegration by a developed country in the 21st century. No other advanced economy has deliberately chosen to leave the largest trading bloc with which it had been fully integrated.
It was a decision that reversed 47 years of economic integration and goods trade, made through a democratic vote.
“It is very important to remember that the departure of such a significant member from the European Union affected not only the British, but also the shape of the Community itself. The current situation, in which France and Germany hold a largely dominant position in the Union, is a consequence of the absence of the British,” says Professor Rzegocki.
“We should remember that integration can also lead to disintegration, so we should take the British case into account. On the one hand, it is negative because the British generally lost from leaving. On the other, it showed a path and what may happen if the European Union does not reform and does not take into account the interests of individual countries, both large and small.”
