Tag: Allianz Research

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Selective Shock, Structural Risk: Poland at the Core of the Emerging Market Energy Divide

Poland had previously been “lumped together” with other rapidly modernising economies during various crises, even though our economic performance was, at specific moments, usually...

War with Iran puts energy, inflation and global markets on edge

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran will affect energy markets, transport costs, inflation risks and financial conditions — but everything depends on...

From IEEPA to Section 122? Washington Searches for a New Legal Path to Tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court has struck down the administration’s most lucrative tariff instrument—but not the entire new tariff system. A ruling against using the...

As U.S. Treasuries Lose Their Shine, the Euro Gets a Second Chance

Strategic autonomy has become Europe’s guiding star in an increasingly fragmented world, nearly a decade after President Macron’s first Sorbonne speech. But what does...

Inflation, Debt and Inequality: The U.S. Economy Is Starting to Look K-Shaped

Despite signs of cooling in the services sector, inflation in the United States remains elevated—felt most acutely by low-income households. Since January 2019, prices...

Why Is Europe Losing the AI Race?

As part of its digital omnibus, the European Commission has proposed granting major artificial intelligence developers greater freedom to use certain categories of...

AI Boom Fuels U.S. Earnings; Europe Shows Resilience Despite Weak Demand

At the same time, a clear divergence is visible on both sides of the Atlantic: in the U.S., results were very strong, while in...

Tariffs in the U.S.: Consumers and Foreign Suppliers Bear the Costs, Domestic Production Does Not Benefit

So far, the costs of tariffs have mainly been absorbed by foreign suppliers, but increasingly they will fall on American consumers. Importantly, this has...

Lack of Confidence Vote Won’t Derail Demand: France Seen Rebounding in 2026

Four consecutive quarters of falling corporate investment in France, declining profitability—its 2024 peak is now a memory—and households tightening their belts… yet we expect...

Rising Temperatures Threaten Global Productivity and Economic Growth

Preliminary calculations suggest that ongoing heat waves in Southern and Central Europe, the United States, and China could be associated with significant economic costs. Estimated...

Credit Risk Outlook 2025: Downgrades Hit U.S., France, Belgium – Argentina and Peru Improve

For the past two and a half years (10 consecutive quarters), upgrades to countries' credit risk ratings outnumbered downgrades. Now, a major shift is...

Transatlantic Trade Tensions Rise: Will the EU Call or Fold in the Face of U.S. Tariff Escalation?

The United States has once again challenged Europe with a renewed threat of steep import tariffs. Although Washington temporarily suspended a sweeping 50-percentage-point tariff...

Elections Reflect Growing Right-Wing Populism and Uncertainty Across Eastern and Southern Europe

Divergent Economic Trends in Romania, Poland, and Portugal Share a Common Denominator: Pressure on Public Finances and High External Financing Costs. Accelerating the Use...

U.S.–China Trade Truce Brings Temporary Relief to Markets – But Not the End of the Trade War

The recently reached agreement between the United States and China has provided temporary relief to global markets and the U.S. economy. American companies are...
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