An analysis by Dun & Bradstreet* indicates that disruptions to the smooth flow of transport through the Strait of Hormuz will hit Asian countries the hardest. In particular, the impact will be felt by China and Japan, the largest direct buyers of oil from the Persian Gulf, as well as India, Thailand, and South Korea, and countries across Southeast Asia, including Chinese Taipei, Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
The negative consequences of transport disruptions in the Gulf will first affect the broadly defined upstream industries, before gradually translating into higher costs across the entire economy. This includes sectors such as services, energy, the chemical industry, transport, construction, and industrial production, where rising input prices will likely spread throughout supply chains.
Beyond energy commodities, the Persian Gulf region also plays a crucial role as a center for trade, capital allocation, and investment. The flow of goods and services unrelated to energy is closely linked to wholesale and retail trade, construction, real estate, financial services, and public sector activity. As a result, in the short term the region may face additional challenges, including inventory shortages, delays in capital expenditures (capex), and increased financial stress.
*Source: Dun & Bradstreet shipping analysis and OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables
Shipping Bookings Collapse in the Strait of Hormuz
Dun & Bradstreet data on maritime container bookings (TEU) show that the volume of cancelled import bookings for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its highest level since 2024.
- 1 March: 3,072 TEU (twenty-foot containers) were cancelled, while 811 TEU were newly booked.
- 2 March: 11,865 TEU were cancelled and 7,653 TEU were booked.
The number of containers booked on 2 March 2026 was the lowest level for any Monday booking in 2026, and the second-lowest result on any weekday this year. At the same time, the daily number of cancellations recorded on 2 March was the highest since the beginning of 2024.
- 3 March: 21,762 TEU were cancelled compared with only 1,915 TEU of confirmed bookings.
The volume of confirmed bookings on 3 March was the lowest among all weekdays since 2024, while the number of cancelled bookings was more than twice as high as on any day since 2024.
Moreover, the confirmed bookings recorded on 3 March represented only 13% of the total confirmed bookings compared with the previous week.
Overall, between 1 and 3 March, the volume of import-related bookings fell by 59% compared with the previous week, while the number of cancelled container bookings surged by 364%.
Export Activity Also Declines Sharply
A significant decline has also been recorded in export bookings. Since mid-February 2026, the volume of confirmed export orders has dropped by more than 40%, falling from 34,790 TEU on 15 February to 19,863 TEU on 3 March.
The decline in bookings reflects growing caution among exporters from the Persian Gulf region as geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.
On 3 March, only 1,095 TEU of cargo left the Strait of Hormuz region, while 1,319 TEU of shipments were cancelled. This marked the first time on record that the volume of cancelled cargo shipments from the Persian Gulf exceeded the number of processed and confirmed shipments within a single day.
Between 1 and 3 March, the volume of export cargo bookings fell by 40% compared with the previous week, while the number of cancelled shipments increased by 56%.
*Shipments are considered to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if one of the ports — either loading or unloading — is located in Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, or in the Saudi ports of Ad-Dammam or Jubail, while the other port is located outside this region.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this publication is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or any other form of professional advice. The content is general in nature and not directed at any specific recipient. Independent professional advice should be sought before using the information for any purpose.
Source:
https://ceo.com.pl/ciesnina-ormuz-skutki-wykraczaja-poza-rynek-ropy-azja-placi-najwyzsza-cene-64287
