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Stable Demand and Declining Development Activity: The Latest Overview of Poland’s Industrial and Warehouse Space Market

REAL ESTATEStable Demand and Declining Development Activity: The Latest Overview of Poland's Industrial and Warehouse Space Market

The international consulting firm Cushman & Wakefield has released its summary of Poland’s industrial and warehouse space market in 2024. Demand remained stable, with nearly 6 million square meters of leased space, marking a 4% increase compared to 2023. Moreover, leasing transactions in Poland accounted for as much as 59% of all agreements finalized in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region (9.83 million square meters). However, development activity has slowed significantly—the volume of new projects started last year was the lowest since 2016, which should eventually lead to a decrease in vacant space.

DEMAND: Tenants Value the Polish Market

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s report, demand for modern industrial and warehouse space exceeded 2 million square meters in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Total demand for the year reached over 5.8 million square meters, representing a 4% year-on-year (YoY) increase and marking the fifth consecutive year in which demand exceeded 5 million square meters. Notably, leasing transactions completed in Poland accounted for nearly 60% of total demand in the CEE region. Tenants continue to appreciate the advantages of the Polish warehouse market, including its strategic location, well-developed transportation infrastructure, and competitive total cost of ownership—which, when considering rental, energy, and warehouse labor costs, is 23% lower than in the Czech Republic and more than 50% lower than in Germany.

“The outlook for this year remains optimistic. While the pace of growth may slow, this will reduce the risk of an oversupply of vacant warehouse space. The sector should also benefit from improving financial and economic conditions, including an expected economic rebound in Germany,” explains Damian Kołata, Partner, Head of Industrial & Logistics/E-Commerce CEE at Cushman & Wakefield.

In Q4 2024, four regions dominated Poland’s warehouse landscape, accounting for 1.43 million square meters of leased space:

  • Mazowieckie – 566,000 sqm
  • Łódzkie – 365,000 sqm
  • Śląskie – 256,000 sqm
  • Dolnośląskie – 242,000 sqm

Key Leasing Transactions in Q4 2024

Project Region Tenant Space (sqm) Transaction Type
Hillwood Stryków Łódzkie Oponeo 72,900 + 32,800 Lease extension & expansion
Panattoni Park Rzeszów West Podkarpackie BSH Appliances 73,000 New lease (BTS)
Panattoni Park Legnica Dolnośląskie Confidential (fashion industry) 56,200 New lease
Panattoni Park Zgierz II Łódzkie Confidential (retail industry) 50,300 New lease
CTPark Warsaw South Mazowieckie Douglas 46,300 New lease

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

The structure of leasing agreements remained largely unchanged. Similar to 2023, new leases and expansions accounted for approximately 58% of transactions, while renegotiations made up 42% of total lease volume. The largest share of demand came from the retail and e-commerce sector (38%), followed by logistics and distribution (32%) and manufacturing and automotive (16%).

SUPPLY: Declining Development Activity

At the end of 2024, the total supply of warehouse space in Poland reached 34.5 million square meters. The top three regions with the highest warehouse supply were:

  1. Mazowieckie – 7 million sqm
  2. Śląskie – 5.7 million sqm
  3. Łódzkie – 4.9 million sqm

In Q4 2024, developers completed nearly 508,000 sqm of industrial space, bringing the total new supply for the year to over 2.6 million sqm. Approximately 76% of the space delivered in Q4 was pre-leased before construction was completed.

“The limited speculative supply and strong demand in recent months have caused the vacancy rate to decrease by 0.5 percentage points to 7.5% at the end of December 2024,” notes Adrian Semaan, Senior Research Consultant at Cushman & Wakefield.

Vacancy Rates by Region (Highest & Lowest)

  • Highest vacancy rates:
    • Lubuskie – 19.0%
    • Świętokrzyskie – 16.9%
    • Lubelskie – 12.5%
  • Lowest vacancy rates:
    • Podlaskie – 0.0%
    • Warmińsko-Mazurskie – 2.3%
    • Opolskie – 2.4%

In 2024, only 1.5 million sqm of new industrial projects were started, marking the lowest level since 2016. Developers have cut back on speculative projects, focusing instead on build-to-suit (BTS) and phased investments, which are launched only after securing pre-leases.

“The downward trend will be somewhat slowed by limited activity from tenants still experiencing weaker economic conditions in Western Europe,” adds Damian Kołata.

At the end of December 2024, 1.8 million sqm was under construction, representing a 38% YoY decline. The largest share of ongoing projects was concentrated in:

  • Śląskie (22%)
  • Dolnośląskie (20%)
  • Łódzkie (13%)

RENTAL RATES: Effective Rents Under Pressure

Base monthly rents remained stable:

  • €3.20–5.75/sqm for large big-box warehouses
  • €4.00–8.25/sqm for SBU/City Logistics projects

Older buildings located further from major cities tend to have the lowest rental rates, while most current offers are for newer facilities or developments under construction, where rents start at €4.20/sqm.

“In most regional markets, supply still exceeds demand, leading developers to remain open to negotiations. Thanks to financial incentives, such as rent-free periods or tenant improvement allowances, effective rents may be 15-25% lower than base rates,” concludes Damian Kołata.

LABOR MARKET: Hourly Wages in the Industrial Sector

Comparing Q1 to Q4 2024, blue-collar worker wages increased by 6.31%. The highest wages were observed in:

  • Dolnośląskie – PLN 36.23/hour, due to strong employer competition
  • Warmińsko-Mazurskie – PLN 28.71/hour, where labor market pressure is lower

On average, base wages (PLN 26.45/hour) account for 80% of total pay, while additional components make up 20%, including:

  • Bonuses (8.07%)
  • Overtime (6.76%)
  • Other benefits (5.9%)

Among blue-collar workers, machine and equipment operators earn the highest wages (PLN 33.80/hour), with forklift operators and other machine operators being the most in-demand specialists.

Nearly 50% of employers in the sector plan wage increases in Q1 2025, with:

  • 37% expecting raises of 4-7%

The limited availability of job offers affects the average job search duration, which was three months in Q3 2024. However, industries like manufacturing and logistics tend to offer quicker employment opportunities.

Dagmara Żuromska, National Sales and Key Account Manager, Randstad explains:
“The tight labor market in key logistics regions, such as Dolnośląskie, puts upward pressure on wages, making it a highly competitive job market.”

Source: ManagerPlus

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