Property prices in the largest cities continue to rise, but there is a slowing down of the hikes. Nevertheless, we should not expect a drop in prices this year.
– As per reports from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) in Q1 2024, property prices increased by 9.8% compared to Q4 2023, putting an end to the buying frenzy observed in the second half of the previous year – says Kuba Karliński, founder of Magmillon corporation and author of the book “Profit from property”. – The rise in prices has slowed down, and now it is worth considering what will happen next, whether prices will start to fall.
Data collected by specialized portals concern list prices. In Q2 2024, there was a 14% increase in the primary market and an 18% increase in the secondary market compared to the same period last year. This is less than the increases between the first quarters of 2024 and 2023, which were 15% and 19%, respectively. Currently, the prices of residential units in Kielce, Krakow, and Rzeszow are rising the fastest; however, there are minimal drops, such as in Opole and Olsztyn.
The list prices in the primary market have increased rapidly year-on-year, as evidenced by NBP data for Q1 2024. In Warsaw, it rose from 13,302 PLN to 16,191 PLN per square meter. This is an increase of 21.7%. For the seven largest housing markets (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warsaw, Wrocław) prices rose from 11,919 PLN to 14,155 PLN, a 18.7% increase year-on-year.
The transaction prices – based on NBP analysis for the Q1 2024 – were lower than the list prices by nearly 10%, for example, in Gdańsk. In seven cities, however, there was an increase from 11,327 PLN to 13,500 PLN, an increase of 19.2%.
– Much will now depend on what happens with the government program, already announced by the new ruling coalition, called “0% loan” – comments Kuba Karliński, the founder of Magmillon corporation. – If the program is implemented, we will likely see double-digit price increases again, and an increase in prices by the end of this year by 15-20%, this would be a conservative estimate.
The program is undergoing further amendments; enthusiasm for its implementation is rather waning, especially due to the significant strain on the state budget, and thus on taxpayers.
The government decided to listen to experts who claim that the program will not be beneficial for buyers, due to a stimulated demand which will be followed by accelerated price growth.
– If this government program is not implemented, I would expect a price increase this year by 10%, I see this rather as a minimum – adds K.Karliński. – We still have high inflation, energy prices are rising, and developers’ margins are decreasing; thus, we cannot expect prices to start falling. While waiting for developments, developers are reducing supply.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/stabilizacja-na-rynku-nieruchomosci-ceny-mieszkan-rosna-wolniej-42646
