SpaceX will publish its first quarterly report since its stock market debut after the close of US trading today. It will also be the first major test of whether the company’s financial performance justifies its post-IPO valuation.
Increased share-price volatility can therefore be expected, although that would be nothing unusual for SpaceX. Shares sold in the public offering at USD 135 had risen to nearly USD 230 by mid-June, valuing the company at more than USD 3 trillion. Since then, however, the price has fallen by 48%, and the shares are currently trading at around USD 115.
An additional source of uncertainty is the expiry of the first lock-up period on 6 August, which could increase the supply of shares from employees and early investors. The market will also listen closely to Elon Musk’s comments about a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla, even though the billionaire has recently denied media speculation on the subject.
Few companies currently generate as much excitement among investors as SpaceX. This week, the company faces two events that could increase the already high volatility of its shares.
After 10 p.m. Polish time today, SpaceX will publish its first quarterly report since going public. The expiry of the first lock-up period on Thursday may prove even more significant.
From that date, employees and investors who financed SpaceX during its early stages will be able to sell some of their shares for the first time. In an extreme scenario, stock worth hundreds of billions of dollars could potentially become eligible for sale, substantially increasing the number of shares available on the market.
The date on which the lock-up period would expire was known at the time of the IPO, giving the market several months to reflect it in valuations. The greatest uncertainty, however, concerns the scale of selling by existing shareholders.
This is why today’s quarterly results will be particularly important. If the figures fall short of expectations, some investors may decide to take profits, increasing selling pressure. If SpaceX surprises the market positively, however, many shareholders may postpone selling in anticipation of further gains in the company’s value.
The combination of the first quarterly earnings release and the expiry of the lock-up period two days later makes this one of the most important events of the year for the US stock market.
A quarterly report normally affects primarily the shares of one company. This time, investors will also be assessing whether the largest IPO in history genuinely deserves its record-breaking valuation.
Investors Await Musk’s Comments on a Possible Tesla Merger
One subject to which investors will be particularly sensitive is speculation about a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla.
Although Elon Musk has denied the media reports in recent days, the market will undoubtedly analyse his every word closely. In the case of SpaceX, it is difficult to separate the company from its founder.
Musk is simultaneously its visionary, chief engineer, strategic leader and public face. Investors’ confidence in his ability to deliver the most ambitious projects is one of the main reasons they are prepared to pay considerably more for SpaceX shares than for those of most other technology companies.
However, this premium works in both directions. Any controversy surrounding Musk, his political statements or developments involving Tesla or the X platform can affect SpaceX’s share price almost immediately.
Investor behaviour following the earnings release and the expiry of the lock-up period will show whether the market still has unconditional faith in Musk’s vision or believes that the time has come to realise some of its gains.
Starlink Remains the Core of the Business
SpaceX’s operations are based on three pillars: Starlink, its space business and artificial intelligence.
Starlink remains by far the most important and profitable part of the company. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX generated revenue of USD 4.69 billion. Starlink currently accounts for most of the group’s cash flow and delivers an operating margin of approximately 36.5%.
The artificial intelligence segment, by contrast, remains in a phase of intensive investment and places a significant burden on current financial results.
The space business generates attractive margins from launching payloads into orbit, but remains costly because of the enormous expenditure required to develop the Starship programme.
This business structure makes SpaceX difficult to value using traditional indicators such as the forward price-to-earnings ratio.
The company continues to record losses while investing heavily in growth, making the conventional P/E ratio of limited use. Investors are primarily valuing the long-term potential of the Starlink constellation and the development of infrastructure associated with artificial intelligence.
Wall Street Remains Highly Optimistic
Despite these uncertainties, Wall Street remains exceptionally optimistic.
The average analyst price target stands at USD 236, more than twice the current share price. The market is not valuing SpaceX on the basis of its present earnings, but rather its future potential.
Investors believe the company will build infrastructure capable of becoming the foundation of the next technological revolution, both in space and in artificial intelligence.
A comparison with Nvidia illustrates the scale of these expectations. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Nvidia generated net income of USD 58.3 billion, more than three times SpaceX’s total revenue for the whole of 2025.
Investors buying SpaceX shares today are therefore paying primarily for the promise of future success.
The history of capital markets shows, however, that even the most spectacular vision must eventually be supported by financial results.
Source: CEO.com.pl
