Prices in Polish retail stores continue to climb, though at a slower pace than in previous months. In August 2025, everyday shopping costs rose 5.1% year-on-year, down from July (+5.7%) and June (+5.8%). Food alone increased by 4.3% y/y, also showing a weaker upward trend. The findings come from the monthly report “Retail Price Index” published by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito Universities, based on an analysis of more than 92,600 prices across 43,600 stores.
Top Increases and Declines
The steepest price hikes were recorded in:
- Fats (+17.7% y/y), driven by margarine (+23.8%), butter (+17.2%), and cooking oil (+12.2%),
- Stimulants (+11.7%), led by ground coffee (+26.2%) and instant coffee (+20.2%),
- Fruits (+11.6%), due to climate conditions, lower supply, and higher import costs,
- Sweets and desserts (+9.6%), with chocolate and cocoa-based products surging amid record cocoa prices,
- Dairy (+7.6%), fueled mainly by eggs (+22.4%).
At the other end of the spectrum, four categories posted year-on-year declines:
- Pet food (–2.7%),
- Baby products (–2.4%),
- Household chemicals (–1.1%),
- Dry goods such as sugar and flour (–0.3%).
Prices vs. Inflation
Despite slowing price growth, the gap with official inflation remains significant. While the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported August inflation at 2.8% y/y, retail basket prices rose nearly double that.
“Everyday shopping is what shapes people’s perception of inflation. Even if overall inflation is low, consumers feel the pinch when food, beverages, and household goods stay expensive,” explained Dr. Robert Orpych of WSB Merito.
He added that full alignment between retail prices and inflation could take 9–12 months, given the lag in how macroeconomic changes filter into consumer prices.
Why the Gap Persists
According to the report’s authors, retailers adjust slowly to falling inflation, partly to boost margins.
“Stores benefit from the lag, improving financial performance. But in the coming months, the gap between inflation and retail price growth should narrow,” noted Dr. Artur Fiks of WSB Merito.
Broader Trends
Food, which for years was the main driver of retail inflation, is now a stabilizer thanks to:
- normalized grain prices,
- strong domestic harvests,
- and competitive pressure among retail chains.
Meanwhile, categories like fats, coffee, fruits, and sweets continue to exert upward pressure due to global supply constraints, climate factors, and commodity price spikes.
“The sharp rise in fat prices is concerning, as it reflects both global supply shortages and rising production costs. Similarly, coffee prices remain under pressure from climate change and disrupted supply chains,” said Orpych.
Methodology
The Retail Price Index has been published monthly for over eight years. The August 2025 edition compared 17 product categories and more than 100 everyday consumer items, across 61 retail chains including discount stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience outlets, and cash & carry formats.
