September brought what analysts are calling a “miracle month” in the statistics for new apartment sales in Poland. The sudden publication of official housing prices caused many developers to update their listings—revealing that their actual offer was smaller than previously shown. The new data, however, paint a less optimistic picture: supply of new apartments fell in Q3, and the apparent surge in sales was partly a statistical illusion.
Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl, a leading real estate analytics platform, examined how these changes affected the average price per square meter across Poland’s seven largest metropolitan areas.
“Price transparency created statistical effects that may have inflated Q3 sales figures,”
explains Jan Dziekoński, Head of Market Insights at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Q3 Sales Jumped 12%, But Not All Due to Real Demand
According to RynekPierwotny’s BIG DATA report, developers in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Łódź, Poznań, and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (GZM) sold about 13,300 new apartments in Q3 2025 — 12% more than in the previous quarter.
“We expected a modest revival in housing demand due to improved credit availability. However, it wasn’t strong enough to justify the September ‘rush’ to developers’ sales offices,”
notes Marek Wielgo, real estate expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Dziekoński explains that in cities such as Warsaw, Kraków, and Wrocław, many developers reported earlier sales in September that had not previously been disclosed. Since they were not legally required to publish full offers before, some transactions had gone unreported until the “price disclosure” rule took effect.
Another possible factor behind the “miracle” is that some developers deliberately reduced the number of available units—by marking unsold apartments as “sold” or withdrawing them before September 11.
“We estimate that both effects together inflated Q3 sales by roughly 700 to 900 units across the seven largest cities,”
adds Dziekoński.
“That said, our data still confirm that housing demand improved compared to Q2.”
Regional Differences: Kraków and Wrocław Booming, Silesia Cooling
Wielgo points out that only developers in Upper Silesia experienced a sales decline—11% lower than in Q2. In contrast, other markets saw noticeable rebounds:
- Kraków: +28%
- Wrocław: +21%
- Warsaw: +14%
- Łódź: +13%
- Tri-City: +9%
- Poznań: +4%
However, experts caution that these figures may be slightly overstated due to the “price transparency” effect. Moreover, contract cancellations also influenced quarterly statistics, requiring data corrections.
Developers Cut Supply by 26% in Q3
From the buyer’s perspective, a worrying trend is the sharp decline in new housing supply. Developers introduced only 10,100 new apartments across the seven metropolises in Q3 — 26% fewer than in Q2.
“We haven’t seen such weak supply since Q3 2023,”
says Dziekoński.
“Back then, developers were still in a post-crisis slowdown caused by limited access to mortgages and fears of recession. Activity picked up in 2024, but Q3 2025 marks a potential reversal of that upward trend.”
Still, supply varied locally:
- Warsaw: 3,700 new units (+10%)
- Poznań: +18%
- Łódź: +8%
- Kraków: +5%
Yet, these increases were modest rebounds after particularly weak Q2 results.
“In fact, Łódź developers launched 68% more units in Q1, so this ‘growth’ is just a small recovery,”
notes Wielgo.
Meanwhile, other regions saw steep declines:
- Wrocław: -71%
- Upper Silesia: -64%
- Tri-City: -56%
Total Offer Shrinks for the First Time in Two Years
By the end of September, the total number of new apartments available in the seven largest cities fell slightly—by 1%, to 76,900 units.
- Wrocław: 10,300 (-8%)
- Tri-City: 8,200 (-7%)
- Upper Silesia: 10,800 (-2%)
- Łódź: 10,100 (no change)
- Poznań: 8,500 (+3%)
- Kraków: 11,600 (+3%)
- Warsaw: 17,300 (+2%)
Interestingly, the increases were not always due to new projects. In Warsaw, for instance, the offer grew because developers were forced to disclose previously hidden listings, such as luxury apartments that had never appeared on public portals before. Their inclusion in official data raised the average price per square meter, especially in the premium segment.
Average Prices: Slight Increases in Most Cities
Compared to the end of Q2:
- Wrocław: +4% (to ~15,300 PLN/m²)
- Warsaw: +2% (to ~18,400 PLN/m²)
- Tri-City: +2% (to ~17,200 PLN/m²)
However, new mid-range projects continued to appear:
- Łódź: ~10,600 PLN/m² (new projects in September)
- Poznań: ~11,900 PLN/m²
- Kraków: ~15,200 PLN/m²
As a result, average prices across all listings fell slightly:
- Łódź: -3% (to ~11,200 PLN/m²)
- Kraków: -1% (to ~16,600 PLN/m²)
- Upper Silesia: -1% (to ~11,200 PLN/m²)
- Poznań: stable (~13,500 PLN/m²)
The “Transparency Effect” and Its Impact on Prices
In Warsaw, nearly 14% of listings saw price changes in September. Interestingly, price increases and decreases were almost evenly split, resulting in an overall decline of just 0.05% — statistically negligible.
In Łódź, 26% of units changed prices, mostly reductions, which lowered the city’s average by about 2%. Similar, though smaller, declines were recorded in other cities.
Łódź also became the first metropolis where prices were lower year-on-year (-3%). Meanwhile, Kraków and Poznań remained the most stable, with only 1% year-on-year change, followed by Warsaw and GZM (+3%), Wrocław (+4%), and Tri-City (+11%) — the latter driven by luxury coastal developments in Gdańsk.
Market Outlook: Moderate Demand, Limited Affordability
Whether price stability continues depends on how quickly apartments are sold. The average sell-out time (the period needed to sell all available stock) rose only in GZM in Q3, where it now exceeds two years, signaling potential oversupply.
In contrast, in Warsaw, Kraków, Tri-City, Wrocław, and Poznań, the market remains balanced, with sell-out times between 12 and 24 months. In Poznań, however, competition is intensifying as supply remains high.
“We expect demand for new housing to recover gradually in the coming months,”
predicts Dziekoński.
“Even after four interest rate cuts, mortgage costs are still high. We’d need another three or four cuts before loans become truly affordable for most buyers.”
Summary
The so-called “September miracle” on Poland’s housing market was largely a statistical artifact caused by mandatory price disclosure. While the number of recorded sales jumped, the true demand growth remains moderate, and the supply of new housing is shrinking. Developers are waiting for further monetary easing and regulatory clarity, while buyers continue to face high borrowing costs and limited affordable options.
Source: RynekPierwotny.pl via CEO.com.pl
