September 2025 saw a pronounced revival in both consumer and housing finance. According to BIK data, banks and credit unions issued 52.4% more mortgages and 18.8% more cash loans than a year earlier. In value terms, the growth was even stronger — +62.8% and +21.3% year-on-year, respectively.
The only product still in recession is installment loans (–8.9% y/y in volume). Credit cards remain stable — with a symbolic 0.6% decline in the number of newly issued cards, but a +5.1% increase in the value of approved limits.
Mortgage Lending Boom — New All-Time Record
September turned out to be the strongest month in the history of Poland’s mortgage market, with the total value of newly issued housing loans reaching PLN 10.67 billion, surpassing the previous record set in January 2024. This surge is driven primarily by rising real household incomes and lower borrowing costs following a series of rate cuts. The average mortgage value jumped to PLN 448,900 (+6.8% y/y).
Experts note, however, that maintaining this growth momentum will largely depend on global geopolitical stability. In a de-escalation scenario, demand could accelerate even further.
Cash Loans: High-Value Lending Fuels the Market
The cash loan segment also recorded strong dynamics — mainly driven by loans above PLN 50,000. The average value of new cash financing has risen to PLN 26,400. This is supported by longer loan terms, cheaper cost of capital, and rising real incomes. In the first nine months of 2025, banks issued over PLN 90 billion in cash loans — putting the market on track for a full-year record.
Installment Loans: Casualty of Declining Micro-Payments
At the opposite end of the spectrum, installment loans remain the only segment in structural recession. The decline is mainly due to the cooling of the BNPL market and a smaller scale of refinancing overdue non-bank liabilities into the banking sector. Interestingly, the average installment loan value is rising (PLN 2,154; +9.2% y/y), which means large-ticket purchases remain resilient, while the slowdown primarily affects low-value discretionary spending.
Portfolio Quality Remains Stable — But Credit Cards Show Warning Signal
Credit quality indicators remain within safe territory. Repayment performance continues to improve for both mortgages and cash loans. However, a notable warning signal is emerging from credit cards — their default rate is now only 0.02 percentage points below that of cash loans. If this trend continues, credit cards could soon become the highest-risk retail lending product.
