The first quarter of 2026 was a cold shower for the Polish construction sector. The industry remains highly sensitive to seasonality and to the broader global environment, says Sławomir Majchrowski, CEO of Selena Group.
The beginning of the year is traditionally a weaker period for most branches of construction, but the data for this January came as a major surprise to the entire industry. According to Statistics Poland, construction and assembly output in the first month of this year fell by 12.8% year on year and by as much as 65.2% month on month compared with December 2025. This was one of the weakest Januaries in at least a decade and a result clearly worse than market expectations, which had pointed to a decline of around 5%.
The start of 2026 therefore reminded the industry how strongly it remains dependent on seasonal factors. A harsh winter, low temperatures and persistent snow cover limited the ability to carry out work on site. Even after removing the impact of seasonal factors, the scale of the decline remained very large, at 10.8% year on year and 8.9% month on month. The building construction segment was hit the hardest, with output down 18.4%, while civil and water engineering fell by 7.5%.
February brought a somewhat better picture of the market, although it is still difficult to speak of a clear rebound. Compared with January, construction and assembly output increased by 6.4%, which suggests that part of January’s collapse was indeed temporary. At the same time, however, the sector remained significantly in negative territory on a year-on-year basis. According to preliminary data from Statistics Poland, construction and assembly output in February was 13.7% lower than a year earlier, and after seasonal adjustment the decline amounted to 12.4% year on year and 3.8% compared with January. All major segments of the market remained weak: building construction fell by 16.7%, specialised construction activities by 12.2%, and civil and water engineering by 11.7%.
The first quarter also highlighted a second important feature of construction — its high sensitivity to the global environment. This is an exceptionally energy-intensive sector, so every bout of geopolitical uncertainty and every jump in fuel, energy and raw material prices quickly feeds through into investor sentiment and project calculations.
In such conditions, resilience and organisational flexibility become crucial. Selena Group’s direction remains based on diversification, scale, a geographically dispersed operating structure, and experience in managing global supply chains. Thanks to this, Selena Group is now well prepared to operate even in a more demanding market environment.
