According to forecasts by AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest commercial real estate advisory firm, Warsaw’s office market is entering the final months of 2025 in a phase of clear stabilization, where the quality of supply—rather than its scale—plays the decisive role. Limited new supply, the systematic withdrawal of older buildings from the market, and sustained tenant demand mean that prime locations and modern, well-designed properties are increasingly being rewarded.
Estimates from analysts at AXI IMMO’s Research and Market Analysis Department indicate that total new office supply in Warsaw in 2025 will amount to around 90,000 sq m, broadly in line with the previous year. At the same time, the volume of space under construction remains limited and is not expected to exceed approximately 200,000 sq m by year-end, confirming developers’ cautious approach to launching new projects. Investment activity continues to focus mainly on central zones, where demand remains the most stable.
Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager at AXI IMMO’s Research and Market Analysis Department, explains:
“The Warsaw office market is maturing. A decline in total supply is not a sign of weakness, but a natural stage of market balancing and optimization. We are seeing more older buildings—no longer aligned with today’s standards—being withdrawn from commercialization, as well as projects undergoing comprehensive refurbishments or repositioning. This marks another stage in the development of the office property market, where both owners’ awareness and tenants’ expectations are very high, and the real quality of available space continues to improve.”
Demand for office space throughout 2025 is expected to reach approximately 740,000 sq m, a result comparable to the previous year. Renegotiations still account for a significant share of transactions, but AXI IMMO analysts also note steady interest in relocations—particularly among companies seeking higher office standards, more efficient floor layouts, and locations well served by public transport.
At the end of the third quarter of 2025, Warsaw’s vacancy rate stood at around 9.7%, with clear differences between central and non-central locations. In the coming months, AXI IMMO expects a further gradual decline in availability, especially in the best-performing projects.
Bartosz Oleksak, Associate Director in AXI IMMO’s Office Agency Department, comments:
“It is becoming increasingly clear that simply ‘being in a good district’ is no longer enough. Tenants are focusing on specific micro-locations, access to the metro, commuting comfort for employees, and the quality of the building’s surroundings. These factors were the key drivers of leasing pace and rental levels in 2025.”
As of the end of 2025, asking rents in Warsaw remain stable. In prime central projects, headline rents are expected to hold at up to around EUR 27.5 per sq m per month, while in non-central locations rents start from approximately EUR 9.5 per sq m. Upward pressure is most visible in modern buildings and properties that have undergone comprehensive refurbishments, offering high technical standards and solutions supporting ESG objectives.
Tomasz Michalczyk, Director of the Office Agency Department at AXI IMMO, concludes:
“The closing months of 2025 confirm that Warsaw’s office market is increasingly driven by selectivity and quality. For owners, this means the need for continued investment in refurbishments and aligning buildings with the real needs of tenants. For companies planning an office move, it underscores the importance of earlier planning and a more conscious approach to location selection.”
Source: ceo.com.pl
