In April, average prices per square metre of apartments on the secondary market remained stable in most major Polish cities. Where changes did occur, they were minor and strongly dependent on local conditions, according to analyses by GetHome.pl.
“On the one hand, credit conditions are better today than they were a year ago. On the other hand, economic uncertainty is increasing, partly due to the tense situation in the Middle East. Concerns about the cost of credit over the longer term persist, while buyers themselves are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see strategy and extending the decision-making process,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at GetHome.pl.
April Marked by Seasonal Cooling
Data from the Adradar property listings search engine show that in April around 33,000 secondary-market apartment listings disappeared from advertising platforms. This was 7% fewer than in March and as much as 37% fewer than in April last year.
However, this decline should not be interpreted as a sign of a worsening market situation. The secondary market is clearly seasonal. After the winter revival, which usually begins as early as January and February, April often brings a short-term slowdown in buyer activity. Demand usually accelerates again in the following weeks, after the Easter period. Last year was an exception, when unusually strong sales momentum continued until May.
Prices Increasingly Depend on Local Conditions
In theory, improved creditworthiness among some households should support more visible price increases on the secondary market as well. April did not confirm this. Month on month, symbolic increases in the average price per square metre of used apartments — of around 1% — were recorded only in Warsaw, at around PLN 18,200 per square metre; the Tri-City, at around PLN 17,000 per square metre; and Katowice, at around PLN 11,700 per square metre.
In Kraków, at around PLN 16,900 per square metre, Poznań, at around PLN 12,100 per square metre, and Łódź, at PLN 8,700 per square metre, the average price remained unchanged. In Wrocław, however, it fell by around 4% month on month, to PLN 13,600 per square metre.
The year-on-year picture is equally varied. The Tri-City remains the leader in price growth, with the average price per square metre rising by around 8%. Clear increases were also recorded in Poznań, at 4%. By contrast, prices in Wrocław are now on average around 5% lower than a year ago, while in Kraków they are down 1% and in Łódź 2%.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that prices of second-hand apartments have stopped rising at the same pace across the country. Today, everything is decided by local factors: the structure of supply, competition from the primary market and the real purchasing power of buyers in a given city,” Marek Wielgo assesses.
Developer Supply Is Cooling Sellers’ Expectations
A very large supply of developer-built apartments remains an important factor stabilising prices on the secondary market. In April, in all the analysed metropolitan areas, the number of apartments offered by developers was higher than the number of second-hand apartments available for sale.
In Warsaw alone, the primary market offer included around 16,400 apartments, compared with 15,600 on the secondary market. In Kraków, developers offered around 11,800 units, while fewer than 8,000 were available on the secondary market. Similar proportions can be seen in Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice.
Buyers are increasingly comparing offers from both market segments. The availability of new apartments — often with additional price incentives or flexible payment terms — limits the ability of owners of used apartments to raise prices and increases the importance of negotiations.
“This relationship works both ways. Price pressure on the secondary market also affects developers’ caution in setting prices and making decisions about launching new supply,” Marek Wielgo emphasises.
Supply Still Lower Than a Year Ago
In April, the monthly inflow of new listings was lower than in March. At the same time, the total number of apartments available for sale remains lower than a year ago — both nationwide and in the largest metropolitan areas.
In Warsaw, the number of available listings is around 18% lower year on year, in Wrocław 24% lower, in Kraków 19% lower and in Łódź 16% lower. The only exception is the Tri-City, where a slight 2% month-on-month increase was recorded in April, although the offer is still smaller than a year earlier.
“Even if prices have stopped rising, the potential for upward pressure is building, because the supply of second-hand apartments is now lower than a year ago. Whether this translates into lasting price changes will be determined in the coming months by the relationship between the pace of sales and the scale of new supply — both on the secondary and primary markets,” Marek Wielgo concludes.
Source: CEO.com.pl
