After two months of relative balance between supply and demand, February brought a clear surprise to Poland’s housing market. The number of apartments introduced for sale by developers in the seven largest Polish cities totaled only 1,500 units—58% fewer than a month earlier. At the same time, according to preliminary estimates, 4,300 apartments were sold. As a result, for the first time in a year the total housing offer dropped below 60,000 units. What does this mean for the market?
According to Katarzyna Kuniewicz, the latest data indicate a noticeable shift in market dynamics.
“Data from the last month clearly show a change in market momentum. In February 2025, according to preliminary figures, the number of apartments sold was 12% higher than the number introduced for sale. In February this year, the gap reached nearly 190%. In practice, this means that almost three times fewer units were launched than sold. Consequently, the number of apartments available across the seven largest markets was 4% lower than the preliminary January results and totaled just 59,500 units,” Kuniewicz explains.
In February, developers in the seven largest cities—Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, the Tri-City, Warsaw, and Wrocław—launched sales of 60 new projects, offering only 1,500 apartments. This represents a 58% decline month-on-month and a 52% drop compared with the same period last year. Demand responded with increased purchasing activity. According to preliminary data, developers sold 4,300 apartments in February—13% more than a month earlier (based on preliminary figures) and 21% more year-on-year. If the final data confirm sales of around 4,100 units across the seven largest markets, the result will still be several percentage points higher than a year earlier.
The number of available apartments is declining
As Kuniewicz points out, the current relationship between demand and supply is reflected in the number of apartments offered by developers at the end of the month.
“In previous months, despite demand consistently exceeding supply, the number of apartments available across the seven largest markets remained relatively stable and hovered around a record level. However, by the end of February the developers’ offer fell below 60,000 units, which was a natural consequence of the clear advantage of sold apartments over newly introduced ones. After many months of stabilization, we can certainly speak of a breakthrough reduction in supply. Moreover, if we include reserved apartments in the seven largest cities, the total number of units offered by developers also declined compared with January and amounted to 65,700 apartments at the end of February,” she adds.
What does the sales absorption time show?
By the end of February, the pool of reserved apartments amounted to nearly 6,200 units, slightly higher than a month earlier. As a result, the total number of apartments currently on offer—including those under reservation—is 2,600 lower than the figure recorded in the Otodom Analytics study at the end of January 2026.
“Although the aggregated supply level decreased at the end of February, it would be a major mistake to announce the long-awaited breakthrough for many developers,” Kuniewicz comments. “The relationship between the number of apartments offered and sold in the largest markets—expressed as the number of quarters needed to sell the entire supply—has remained very stable for three months and still indicates a balance between demand and supply.”
Where is the balance disrupted?
However, the situation varies significantly across individual cities, as reflected in different trends in the sales absorption time for each market. By the end of February, the time needed to sell existing supply increased in Katowice, Poznań, and the Tri-City compared with January. In contrast, it shortened in Warsaw, Kraków, and Łódź. Only in Wrocław did the indicator remain unchanged month-on-month.
It should be emphasized that in February, in none of the analyzed cities was the number of newly introduced apartments higher than the number sold. Therefore, the increase in the absorption time on some markets is primarily the result of the calculation methodology used for this indicator. In practice, it shows that in Katowice, Poznań, and the Tri-City the number of apartments sold in February this year was lower than in November 2025, as the indicator is based on sales from the three months preceding the analysis.
How are the average prices of new apartments evolving?
In February, monthly changes in the average prices of apartments offered in the seven largest markets were more dynamic than in January, when they remained minimal (except for the Tri-City, where prices increased by 1%). On a monthly basis, prices recorded in February ranged from a 1.3% decrease in Katowice to increases of 0.8% in both Poznań and Warsaw. Only in Kraków was complete price stability recorded—a rare occurrence in the Polish housing market—across a pool of around 10,000 apartments offered by developers.
An analysis of year-on-year price changes clearly shows that Poznań joined the two January leaders in price growth—Warsaw and the Tri-City. While an annual increase of around 6–7% in Warsaw and Poznań is not surprising (in Warsaw due to strong sales and in Poznań due to declining supply), the double-digit growth recorded in the Tri-City raises more questions.
“The source of these dynamic changes—more pronounced than in other markets—was, on the one hand, the high prices of apartments introduced for sale between April and September 2025, and on the other hand significantly lower prices of units purchased during the same period. There are strong indications that even if the average prices of currently offered apartments stabilize at their present levels, the Tri-City will continue to record high year-on-year price growth indicators at least until May,” Kuniewicz concludes.
