In February, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to keep interest rates unchanged. To some, this may have come as a surprise, as a significant portion of the market had anticipated a cut. Why did the RPP hold steady? What does this mean for borrowers, and how will it affect the Polish złoty? These questions are addressed in the following commentary by Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of the Analysis Department at XTB.
Rates on Hold: Reference Rate Remains at 4.00%
The RPP opted to maintain the status quo, leaving the main reference rate at 4.00%. While the decision aligned with the broader market consensus, the divide among economists was unusually sharp; nearly half of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 25-basis-point cut.
The Council’s “wait-and-see” approach suggests a preference for a more comprehensive data set, specifically the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) upcoming inflation projection. This report is expected to be the primary catalyst for any policy shifts in March.
Wage Pressure vs. Disinflation
A key deterrent for the Council’s “dovish” members was likely the recent labor market data. In December 2025, wage growth accelerated to 8.6% y/y, significantly outstripping both the 6.9% forecast and the 7.1% recorded in November. With average nominal wages in the enterprise sector reaching approximately PLN 9,600, the risk of demand-driven inflation remains a persistent concern.
While preliminary January data suggests a continued trend of disinflation, the RPP historically avoids aggressive moves until the “new year effect”—the full scope of early-year price adjustments—is clear. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy remains a risk. Although the full economic impact of KPO (National Recovery Plan) funds isn’t expected until mid-2026, current high budget spending continues to limit the window for rapid monetary easing.
The Borrowers’ Perspective: Relief Deferred
For now, borrowers face a “status quo” scenario. In a typical mortgage example (PLN 500,000, 15-year term, 6% interest), a 25 bp cut would have reduced monthly payments by roughly PLN 70.
However, the structural landscape of Poland’s credit market has shifted. The increased prevalence of fixed-rate mortgages means that RPP decisions now have a less immediate impact on household budgets than they did three years ago.
The Złoty’s Resilience
Maintaining higher rates bolsters the attractiveness of the Polish currency. The złoty has shown remarkable resilience despite global geopolitical volatility and uncertainty surrounding the trade policies of the Trump administration. Currently, USD/PLN is hovering around 3.57, while EUR/PLN remains stable near 4.22.
Foreign investors appear willing to overlook Poland’s fiscal deficit as long as it is counterbalanced by robust GDP growth and the steady inflow of EU structural funds.
