More than a week has passed since the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump announced that military operations could last around four weeks, although in the case of geopolitical conflicts such declarations rarely provide any real certainty about how events will unfold. Financial markets and analysts are therefore increasingly asking: what if tensions persist for longer? At the center of attention are energy prices, the security of transport routes, and the stability of global supply chains—factors that could also affect the operating costs of companies in Europe, including SMEs.
We asked Maciej Reluga, Vice President of the Management Board and Chief Economist at Santander Bank Polska S.A., responsible for macroeconomic analysis, forecasts, and the bank’s strategy, as well as a member of the Expert Council of Alliance Business Connect, about the possible economic consequences.
As the economist emphasizes, the scale of the conflict’s impact on the global and European economies will depend primarily on how long it lasts.
“The strength of the consequences for the global economy will depend above all on the duration of the conflict. If the period of escalation is prolonged, the European and Polish economies must be prepared in the coming months for higher energy costs, weaker investment sentiment, and depreciation of emerging market currencies.”
Energy and transport: the main transmission channels for businesses
For the Polish economy, the key channels of impact remain energy prices and transport costs. The markets’ initial reactions already point to rising fuel prices and growing logistics costs.
“For Poland, the most important transmission channel is the increase in global oil and gas prices, which translates into more expensive fuel, higher electricity prices, and rising production costs in energy-intensive industries. Clear increases in fuel prices can already be seen at petrol stations. SMEs in transport, logistics, the chemical industry, metallurgy, and processing will be particularly exposed, because energy and fuel account for a significant share of their operating costs.”
The economist also points to possible disruptions in global trade and maritime transport.
“At the same time, potential disruptions to shipping in the Middle East—especially if routes in the Arabian Sea or the Red Sea are affected—will increase freight rates and extend delivery times from Asia. This will be particularly painful for SMEs active in import trade, e-commerce, and manufacturing dependent on Asian components. Higher freight costs and delays could lead to rising expenses, shrinking margins, and problems maintaining inventory levels.”
Uncertainty weighs on investment and consumption
Growing geopolitical tensions may also affect the financial position of businesses and consumer sentiment.
“At the same time, greater global uncertainty may lead to a weaker zloty and higher financing costs, which for Polish companies means more expensive loans and a more cautious approach from financial institutions. The sectors most vulnerable will be those dependent on stable demand conditions and financing—construction, consumer services, as well as innovative firms and startups. Demand-side effects may also be significant: geopolitical uncertainty encourages households to consume more cautiously, especially in non-essential categories, which will weaken retail sales and part of the services sector.”
Some industries, however, may feel the effects of the conflict in different ways.
“Globally, the tourism industry will certainly suffer due to lower demand for flights and holiday travel near the conflict zone, as well as more difficult transit to almost all Asian countries, because Dubai and Doha are important transfer hubs. In theory, this could support local tourism by redirecting household budgets from foreign travel to domestic spending, or encourage Polish tourists to choose other destinations, such as the Americas.”
Indirect effects for Polish businesses
Although Poland does not conduct significant trade with Iran, the domestic economy remains vulnerable to global shocks.
“In the end, this conflict would affect Polish SMEs mainly indirectly—through energy prices, transport costs, exchange rates, and financing costs—rather than through trade with Iran itself, which is of marginal importance for Poland. The most exposed sectors will be transport and logistics because of fuel prices, energy-intensive industries because of energy costs, import trade and e-commerce because of freight, and sectors sensitive to demand and credit conditions.”
“Less likely, but still possible, are local positive effects—for example for companies in the defense sector, cybersecurity, and food exporters, if part of Middle Eastern demand shifts toward EU suppliers. Overall, however, the picture remains negative. If the conflict lasts longer than a few weeks, one can expect stronger cost pressure, weaker investment dynamics, and more cautious consumption, which would translate into slower economic activity in Europe and a moderate deterioration in business conditions in Poland.”
