The year 2025 passed in the housing market without programmatic stimuli, amidst record supply and still-high interest rates. Despite this, developers began construction on nearly 130,000 apartments, confirming that the sector can function under conditions of market equilibrium rather than short-term demand stimuli. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has released December data regarding residential construction, thus giving us a complete picture of how the market shaped up in 2025.
Housing Starts
Developers started construction on nearly 130,000 apartments (129,714) in 2025. Given that this result was achieved at a time when the supply of available apartments is the highest in history, and the NBP interest rate still significantly exceeds that of the boom period of 2016–2021—which could, after all, prompt investors to exercise greater caution—the past year must be considered relatively successful.
“The fact that a 15% decrease in new investments was recorded compared to 2024 is misleading in this case. In 2024, particularly in its first half, the starts of new investments were driven by a revival in demand due to the operation of the BK2% program and, as it turned out later, a vain belief in assurances about the program’s extension. Meanwhile, the result of the last 12 months was achieved organically, without external impulses,” comments Patryk Kozierkiewicz, legal counsel for the Polish Association of Developer Companies (PZFD), on the GUS data.
Despite the sector’s challenges related to supply levels, the adopted strategy of launching new projects can be verified positively. The probability of such a scenario is evidenced by recent interest rate cuts and the increased demand we observed in the final months of 2025. Buyers are returning to sales offices, and the number of apartments sold in the 7 largest cities in the last quarter of 2025 was the highest since the corresponding period in 2023, i.e., the peak of the BK2% program (according to Otodom Analytics).
“Such a high level will be difficult to maintain on the scale of the entire coming year, but it is certainly a positive prognosis for the market. We predict that by the end of 2026, the number of newly introduced investments will oscillate around a similar level, i.e., 125,000–130,000 apartments. In this case, the forces mentioned above will balance each other out: increased demand on the one hand, and high supply and a number of unsold finished apartments not seen for years on the other,” adds the PZFD expert.
Building Permits
In the past year, investors received approval for the construction of 171,493 apartments, representing a 16% decrease compared to 2024.
“A slight cooling seems natural in this case. Supply saturation and a drop in the pace of sales could have limited potential activity regarding the preparation of future investments. Some investors focused to a greater extent on selling existing projects, which limited the space for long-term planning of new investments. This phenomenon could largely affect smaller developers operating outside the main markets and realizing single projects one after another. Although oversupply is also observed in larger metropolises, such as Łódź or Katowice,” claims Patryk Kozierkiewicz.
The positive end to the past year and improving macroeconomic conditions, as well as upcoming legal changes, should prompt developers to greater activity in 2026.
Completions (Occupancy Permits)
After two years of declines in the number of apartments delivered for use, developers closed 2025 with a result of 134,000 completed units, which constitutes an 8% increase year-on-year. Given the duration of construction, the number of apartments delivered for use is the result of investments for which construction began approximately 18–24 months earlier.
“Since 2024 was extremely good for the industry in terms of started construction, the current year should end with an even better result, likely oscillating around 140,000 delivered apartments. This, in turn, would bring us closer to the record levels of 2020–2022,” concludes the PZFD expert.
