Armed conflict emerges as a primary and direct threat in 2025, cited by nearly one-quarter of respondents, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions and global fragmentation. Disinformation holds a leading position in short-term threats, fueling instability and undermining trust in governments, complicating the urgent need for cooperation in addressing common crises. In the long-term, environmental threats dominate, including extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and ecosystem collapse.
The latest, 20th edition of the Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum presents an increasingly divided global risk landscape where escalating geopolitical, environmental, social, and technological challenges threaten stability and progress. Although economic threats are less visible in this edition, they still raise concerns and are linked with social and geopolitical tensions.
State-level armed conflict is recognized as the most significant and urgent global threat in 2025, with nearly one-fourth of respondents identifying it as a primary concern in the coming months.
Disinformation remains a key short-term threat for the second consecutive year, highlighting its lasting impact on social cohesion and governance through eroding trust and intensifying national divisions. Other significant short-term threats include extreme weather events, social polarization, cyber espionage, and warfare.
Environmental threats take the forefront in long-term forecasts, with extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and ecosystem collapses topping the risk rankings over a 10-year horizon. Critical changes in Earth systems and natural resource shortages also play a significant role in these forecasts. Pollution, ranking fifth among the top ten, is perceived as a significant risk in both the short and long term, reflecting a growing recognition of the serious impact of various types of air, water, and soil pollution on health and ecosystems. Summarizing, extreme weather events are recognized as both immediate, short-term, and long-term threats.
The long-term landscape is also overshadowed by technological risks related to disinformation, misinformation, and the negative effects of artificial intelligence development.
“Increasing geopolitical tensions, a breakdown of global trust, and the climate crisis are burdening the world system like never before. In a world marked by deepening divisions and cascading threats, global leaders have a choice: to foster cooperation and resilience or face increasing instability. The stakes have never been higher,” comments Mirek DuĊĦek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.
A Threatened Future
The report, based on the opinions of over 900 global risk experts, policymakers, and industry leaders surveyed in September and October 2024, paints a stark picture of the coming decade. Respondents are significantly less optimistic about the long-term future of the world compared to the short term. Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate that the global landscape will remain tumultuous by 2035, particularly due to intensifying environmental, technological, and social challenges.
More than half of those surveyed foresee some instability over the next two years, reflecting a widespread breakdown of international cooperation. Long-term forecasts indicate even greater challenges as mechanisms of cooperation will need to face increasing pressures. Social threats, such as inequality and social polarization, hold significant positions in both short-term and long-term risk rankings. Rising concerns about illegal economic activities, increasing debt, and strategic resource concentration highlight vulnerabilities that could destabilize the global economy in the coming years. All these issues carry the risk of exacerbating internal instability and undermining trust in governments, further complicating efforts to meet global challenges.
All 33 risks in the ranking become increasingly severe over the long term, reflecting respondents’ concerns about the growing frequency or intensity of these threats over the next decade.
“From conflicts to climate change, we face interconnected crises that require coordinated and collective action. Renewed efforts to rebuild trust and support cooperation are urgently needed. The consequences of inaction could be felt for many generations,” adds Mark Elsner, Head of the Global Risks Initiative, World Economic Forum.
A Decisive Decade: Cooperation Key to Stability
As divisions deepen, the need for effective global cooperation has never been more urgent. However, 64% of experts predict that the fragile global order will be marked by rivalry between medium and major powers, and multilateralism will face significant tensions.
Isolation, however, is not a viable solution. The coming decade is a critical moment for leaders to confront complex, interconnected threats and address the limitations of existing governance structures. To avoid a spiral of instability and instead rebuild trust, enhance resilience, and ensure a sustainable future conducive to social inclusion, nations should prioritize dialogue, strengthen international bonds, and create conditions for renewed cooperation.
“As we enter 2025, threats arising from rising protectionism are becoming increasingly worrisome for already fragile global supply chains. Proposed regulations restricting data flows and contributing to the escalation of malicious cyberattacks will further increase costs for businesses and limit their ability to fully utilize innovative digital technologies and artificial intelligence. Companies that take steps to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains and invest in cybersecurity will be better prepared to face these challenges and succeed in an increasingly complex and divided global risk landscape,” adds Carolina Klint, Chief Commercial Officer, Europe, Marsh McLennan.
“With our planet predicted to cross the 1.5°C warming threshold in 2024, the stakes are incredibly high. The report’s findings clearly indicate that experts view climate threats as critical in the long term. However, as recent headlines show, they also require our immediate attention. We must focus on environmental threats such as extreme weather events and biodiversity loss. Immediate action is crucial to mitigate the worst effects of climate change and build our resilience. The costs of inaction and lack of global cooperation have negative consequences. However, I believe humanity is capable of finding both social and technological solutions that will allow us to avoid the worst. The biggest risk would now be to sit back and say we can do nothing. It is not too late yet,” says Peter Giger, Group Chief Risk Officer, Zurich Insurance Group.
Artur GrzeĊkowiak, President of Marsh McLennan Group in Poland, adds, “Poland in 2025 also faces many significant threats. The situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable, raising concerns about safety and potential effects on our country. After a strong economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Polish economy is grappling with challenges related to supply chain disruptions and rising costs, especially of energy. Although economic prospects are gradually improving, uncertainties regarding inflation and energy prices persist. Additionally, long-term environmental threats, including the effects of climate change, may disrupt the operations of various sectors and industries, such as agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. Demographic changes, issues such as migration, refugee integration, and public health, can generate social tensions that need to be effectively managed.
From a business perspective, companies in Poland must be prepared for these challenges to maintain competitiveness and sustainable development. Investing in innovations and sustainable practices that can help adapt to the changing environment is crucial. Businesses should also develop risk management strategies to effectively respond to supply chain disruptions and changes in environmental protection regulations. In the face of growing cybersecurity threats, companies must invest in digital protections to safeguard their data and infrastructure from potential attacks. Collaboration with other entities and active participation in initiatives aimed at strengthening sector resilience can benefit both businesses and the entire economy.”
Source: ManagerPlus