Among the 17 most frequently purchased product categories analysed in October, stimulants (coffee, tea, alcohol, etc.) saw the highest year-on-year price increase — up 10.6%. The TOP5 also includes fats, which rose 9.7% YoY, sweets and desserts (+8.7%), household chemicals (+8.4%), and food additives such as ketchup, mayonnaise and mustard (+8.1% YoY). In total, 13 categories recorded price increases, while four were cheaper than a year earlier. The smallest decline was noted for fruit (–0.6%). Pet food also became cheaper (–1.9%) as well as bulk products such as sugar and flour (–4.6%). The largest YoY price drop was recorded for vegetables, falling 6.4%.
According to the report “Price Index in Retail Stores” prepared by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito Universities, stimulants were the fastest rising category in October among the 17 groups most frequently purchased by Poles — up 10.6% YoY. In September they ranked fourth (+7.1% YoY), and in August they rose 11.7% YoY. Recently, ground coffee and instant coffee pushed prices higher again, becoming more expensive in October by 32.3% and 12.6% YoY respectively.
– “Prices of stimulants are especially sensitive to volatility in global commodity markets, as well as energy and logistics costs. They react faster and more strongly than categories produced locally. An additional factor is the market preparing for the implementation of the EU EUDR regulation, set to take effect on December 30 this year for large companies. These rules require proof that products such as coffee and cocoa do not come from land deforested after 2020. Although member states are seeking another postponement, many producers have already begun compliance preparations, which brings administrative costs, audits and traceability systems,” explains Dr. Agnieszka Gawlik of WSB Merito University.
In second place are fats, up 9.7% YoY. A month earlier this category topped the list with +11.9% YoY, and in August rose by as much as 17.7% YoY. This time margarine and oil drove the rise, with prices increasing 21% and 13.2% YoY respectively. Previously, oil alone pushed the category upward, while margarine rose the least. In October, butter became 5% cheaper YoY. – “Dropping from first to second place simply means another category is rising even faster. Fats remain in the lead because global issues in vegetable oil markets remain unresolved. The shift in the source of price pressure reflects this perfectly,” comments Dr. Robert Orpych of WSB Merito University.
Third place goes to sweets and desserts (+8.7% YoY). A month earlier, they were at the bottom of the ranking with a 2.5% increase. In August, they had risen 9.6% YoY. Recently, chocolate and chocolate-like products rose nearly 30% YoY. – “This category, especially chocolate, depends on raw materials such as cocoa, fats, and sugar. Global cocoa stocks are one-quarter lower than a year ago. Fats are becoming more expensive due to rapeseed shortages on the Polish market and limited imports from Ukraine. Sugar prices are low but unstable — not enough to offset high costs of other raw materials,” says Dr. Anna Motylska-Kuźma of DSW University in Wrocław.
Fourth place goes to household chemicals (+8.4% YoY). In September they ranked second (+7.7% YoY), while in August they fell 1.1% YoY. – “This reading suggests a return to price levels reflecting the actual higher cost of raw materials and production in this segment. The moderate month-to-month increase results from stabilizing competition — no aggressive promotions like in August and no dramatic spikes. This is the so-called ‘new normal’,” notes Dr. Orpych.
Completing the TOP5 are food additives (+8.1% YoY). In September they rose 4.5% YoY, and in August 3.9% YoY. – “Food additives largely depend on raw material prices such as oil and eggs, which have recently risen faster than average. This delayed effect is now reflected in the category,” explains the DSW University expert.
Just below the top five are meat and fish, with YoY increases of 7.7% and 7.4%. In September those rises were 6.7% and 3.8%, and in August 5.3% and 6.2%. – “Meat and fish markets, though affected by rising production costs, did not experience the severe supply shocks seen globally in vegetable oils, coffee or cocoa. Therefore, while price increases are noticeable, they are more moderate. These categories also rise slower than fats or sweets because competitive pressure is very strong,” says Dr. Orpych.
Next comes bread, up 7.2% YoY (September: +6%, August: +5.5%). – “The acceleration in bread price dynamics is very concerning. Bakeries are burdened by high and rising non-agricultural costs such as energy and labour. We can see a gradual adjustment of bread prices to producers’ new cost levels,” the WSB Merito expert notes.
Following bread are non-alcoholic beverages, up 6.6% YoY (previously +7.4% and +6.6%). – “Since October 1, a new deposit-return system for bottles and cans has been in force in Poland. Its implementation brings investment and logistics costs for producers and retailers, which affects shelf prices. Additionally, the government approved an increase in the sugar tax, effective January 1, 2026, covering soft drinks, flavoured waters and energy drinks,” describes Dr. Gawlik.
Further down are cold cuts, up 5.9% YoY (previously +4.9% and +5.2%). Personal hygiene products rose 4.1% YoY (September: +6.2%, August: +3.9%). – “Most cold cuts in Poland are made from pork and poultry. Pork prices are relatively low compared to previous years, poultry somewhat higher — resulting in a mild upward trend. Meanwhile, price pressure in personal hygiene is easing because no new negative factors are affecting the market,” says Dr. Motylska-Kuźma.
One of the smallest increases was recorded in children’s products, up 3.8% YoY, after falling 0.9% and 2.4% in previous months. The smallest increase overall was in dairy, up 3.3% YoY (September: +6.4%, August: +7.6%). – “The earlier declines in children’s products were likely the result of strong price wars, as chains often treat them as customer-attraction goods. The recent rise may indicate two things: either the price war has ended, or production costs became so high that chains had to increase prices. As for dairy, it dropped from the top of the ranking because price dynamics clearly slowed down,” says Dr. Orpych.
The smallest YoY decline was recorded for fruit, –0.6% (previously +6.2%, August +11.6%). – “In the current season, most fruit sold in stores comes from local suppliers. But there are also imports from Spain, Greece and Portugal. Lower transport costs and a relatively strong Polish currency mean imported fruit also shows no significant upward price pressure,” explains Dr. Motylska-Kuźma.
Pet food also recorded a decline (–1.9% YoY), identical to the September reading. In August, prices fell 2.7% YoY. – “The price drops stem from lower prices of raw materials used in pet food, such as grains and meat by-products. Additionally, competition in this market is very strong, benefiting consumers with pets,” notes the WSB Merito expert.
A larger decline was recorded in bulk products (–4.6% YoY). In September they rose 4.9% YoY; in August they fell 0.3% YoY. The largest price drop was seen in vegetables (–6.4% YoY). In September the decline was 1.5% YoY, while in August they actually rose 3.8% YoY. – “Autumn is the peak supply period for domestic vegetables, which supports seasonal price reductions. Large volumes of fresh produce flood the market, increasing price competition. Additionally, in 2025, root vegetable harvests were about 6% higher than the year earlier,” summarises Dr. Gawlik.
Analytical / Research Method
The data come from the cyclical report “Price Index in Retail Stores” (published monthly for over eight years) by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito Universities (formerly WSB Universities). The analysis compares month-to-month and year-to-year average price levels. The latest edition compares October 2025 with the same period in 2024. It covers 17 product categories and over 100 of the most commonly purchased everyday consumer goods. In total, more than 101,400 retail prices from nearly 48,000 stores belonging to 60 retail chains were analysed. The study includes all discount stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, and cash-and-carry formats reaching most consumers in Poland.
