The latest edition of the “Retail Price Index” report, published by UCE Research and WSB Merito Universities, shows that in October this year, everyday shopping became on average 4.1% more expensive year-on-year. The increase covered 17 categories of products, including food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, household chemicals and children’s products. The analysis included more than 101,000 retail prices from nearly 48,000 stores. In September, prices rose by 4.9% year-on-year, and in August by 5.1%. Dr. Agnieszka Gawlik from WSB Merito University notes that although we are seeing a slower pace of price growth, further increases may be expected in December and January due to seasonally higher demand during the holiday and New Year period. This will coincide with rising fixed costs for producers and retailers.
“Among the key factors are rising electricity and fuel prices, which will increase production and transport costs. In addition, the planned increase in excise duty on alcohol will directly affect the prices of high-proof beverages. Higher sugar tax rates will raise the cost of sweetened drinks and some food products. Higher social security contributions and healthcare premiums for entrepreneurs will also push shop prices up. Combined, these factors mean that despite slowing inflation, price pressures will persist into early 2026,” explains Dr. Agnieszka Gawlik.
Meanwhile, Dr. Anna Motylska-Kuźma from the Lower Silesian University DSW in Wrocław believes that the slowdown in price growth is primarily the result of cheaper crude oil on global markets and the strong Polish złoty. Very favorable weather conditions, which boosted crops, also played a significant role—leading to slower price increases on store shelves compared to last year.
“The market is not giving rise to major inflationary impulses in the food segment. Favorable weather, relatively low energy and fuel prices, and a strong złoty are important anti-inflationary factors. It is also worth noting that wage pressure has moderated in recent months. Wages are now growing at a more moderate pace, which also affects the prices we observe in stores,” says Dr. Motylska-Kuźma.
The report further shows that food prices alone increased by 3.6% year-on-year in October. In September, the increase was 4.1%, and in August, 4.3%. This clearly reflects a declining growth dynamic. There is a clear difference between overall price movements and the narrower category of food products. Dr. Piotr Arak, Chief Economist at VeloBank, highlights that food prices are rising more slowly than the overall basket. According to him, this indicates that non-food categories—such as stimulants or household chemicals—are contributing more to sustained inflation levels in stores. Non-food items are becoming more expensive at a faster pace.
Grzegorz Ogonek, economist at Santander Bank Polska, adds that global food prices, measured for example by the FAO index, significantly slowed during the first half of the year.
“In September, the FAO index expressed in Polish złoty fell by 2.6% year-on-year. This means there is no external pressure to raise food prices in Poland. We also need to consider the surprisingly good domestic supply of fruit and vegetables this year—despite earlier warnings about extremely low precipitation and its potential impact on harvests,” Ogonek notes.
These trends raise the question of why store prices are still rising faster than overall inflation. Dr. Agnieszka Gawlik explains that the retail sector often reacts with a delay to changes in economic conditions. Even when inflation is falling, stores may maintain elevated prices to compensate for earlier increases in the cost of procurement, energy, transportation and labor.
“Additionally, some producers and retailers are still passing on to consumers the effects of previous increases in raw material and logistics costs. This can be seen, for example, in maintaining high margins or shrinking product sizes while keeping prices unchanged,” adds the WSB Merito University expert.
Dr. Motylska-Kuźma also reminds that inflation calculations include not only food and goods purchased by households, but also other products and services that recently have not been under strong inflationary pressure. She also points out that fuel prices are currently heavily influenced by the weak U.S. dollar and global geopolitical developments.
“As for food prices, high production costs are still a factor. This limits the downward pressure on pricing. The apparent balance in the market should lead to further deceleration of price growth in November and December, although this does not mean that products will become cheaper. Instead, they will become more expensive at a pace that is healthy for the economy—consistent with the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target of 2.5%,” states the DSW University expert.
Data also shows that in October, prices in four categories fell year-on-year. In September, three categories recorded declines, and in August four. According to Dr. Piotr Arak from VeloBank, unless new strong shocks emerge—such as supply or cost shocks—the trend of slowing price growth should continue. However, individual categories may still experience faster increases.
