The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, combined with the success of the “Safe Loan 2%” program, caused fluctuations in prices and disruptions in supply and demand in the Polish housing market. The cancellation of the anticipated “0% Loan,” promised by the current government coalition, is expected to calm the market and further stabilize prices. A potential truce in Ukraine and the subsequent outflow of some immigrants may also contribute to price reductions. However, the Polish rental market continues to struggle with the lack of unified standards and regulations that would ensure security for both landlords and tenants.
“The market lacks proper regulations. The Tenant Rights Protection Act is very outdated, and we are working to change it to ensure equal treatment for landlords and tenants. Landlords’ interests are not adequately protected, as there’s no balance between tenant and landlord rights. Still, we’ve managed to adapt with five golden rules we follow to safeguard our interests, even under the flawed law,” says Jacek Kusiak, a board member of the “Mieszkanicznik” Association. “We’ve been working for 12 years to standardize the market with proper contracts, agreements, and tenant screening processes to make everything more civilized. We’re on the right path, but the outdated Tenant Rights Protection Act still needs reform. Once we achieve that, we’ll be satisfied.”
Outdated Tenant Rights Protection Act
The Tenant Rights Protection Act, enacted in 2001, was amended three times in 2022. The act imposes several restrictions on landlords, especially regarding the termination of rental agreements. For example, if a tenant stops paying rent, the landlord can only terminate the agreement after three full months of non-payment, provided the tenant has been notified and given an additional month to settle the debt. If the landlord or their family intends to occupy the property, the notice period is six months, provided alternative housing is offered to the tenant. Without this provision, the notice period extends to three years.
“The rental market was significantly impacted by the war in Ukraine due to the large influx of refugees, which caused rental prices in some cities to rise dramatically,” Kusiak explains. “The year 2025 is expected to be more stable. It’s good that we won’t have a 0% loan program this year because it would have artificially boosted the market, increasing demand for properties but not in a sustainable way. Developers would keep raising prices indefinitely, even for properties still under construction. This would make it harder for people to afford purchases or rentals, as rising property prices also drive up rental costs.”
The Impact of “Safe Loan 2%”
The “Safe Loan 2%” program, introduced by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s government in mid-2023, caused the largest increase in secondary housing market prices since 2007 within just 12 months.
According to data from the National Bank of Poland, year-on-year estimated housing prices in Q3 2024 increased by 14.7% in Warsaw, 16% in Poland’s six largest cities, and 14.3% in other regional capitals. Meanwhile, rental prices rose by 6.6%, 2.9%, and 5.9%, respectively (based on average rental rates per square meter, excluding utility and service fees). These changes were smaller than those observed in Q2 2024. Despite this, the cost of servicing a mortgage remained higher than renting a property.
The number of rental properties on the market continued to grow, partly due to new apartments becoming available after being purchased between 2020 and 2023. Many private investors bought these properties for rental purposes, driven by increased demand from Ukrainian migrants and low interest rates (below 2% until the end of 2021).
“Rental prices stabilized around mid-last year and are expected to remain steady. However, if the war in Ukraine ends, we could see a significant outflow of tenants, which might lead to declines in the rental market,” Kusiak warns. “On the other hand, even if there’s a market correction, it shouldn’t cause major disruptions.”
Outlook for 2025
With no “0% Loan” program planned for 2025, the Polish housing market is likely to experience less artificial stimulation. Experts expect more balanced conditions for both buyers and renters. While demand and supply in the rental market may shift due to geopolitical developments, the overall market appears poised for a period of greater stability.
