The Ministry of Climate and Environment has reported that by the end of 2025, renewable energy sources (RES) accounted for more than 50% of installed capacity in Poland. This is an important signal that the energy transition is happening. But is it moving in the right direction—and at the right pace?
It’s worth stressing that installed capacity is only the technical potential of a technology. What determines the real strength of the power system—its stability, electricity costs, and the competitiveness of the economy—is primarily how much of that capacity can actually be used, and what the structure of the energy mix looks like. Today, the RES sector increasingly faces curtailments on windy and sunny days because the system cannot absorb the available generation.
That’s why the key question for 2026 and the years ahead is this: are regulations and public administration ready to let renewables grow at the pace we need—and, crucially, will the rest of the system keep up with that change?
Installed capacity vs. actual generation
In 2025, green energy accounted for 31.4% of electricity generation in Poland, even though renewables already represented more than half of installed capacity. The gap between capacity and real output reveals a structural problem. Poland has a similar RES capacity share to Denmark, but uses it far less effectively. Denmark’s system—built primarily around wind—delivers roughly 80–88% of electricity from renewables. In Germany, where renewables account for around 70% of installed capacity, their share in generation exceeds 56–62%.
Poland looks different. Renewables are growing fast, but the expansion is driven mainly by photovoltaics, which has a low capacity factor—especially in winter. That is why, on paper, Poland has “power,” but in practice generates much less from it than its neighbors. What’s missing is a coherent strategy and the right proportions between technologies.
The consequences are visible every day. During periods of high RES generation, the system cannot take all the output because coal-fired units must maintain a minimum operating level to preserve grid stability. During periods of low generation—especially in winter—solar cannot support the system, and the gap must be covered by conventional sources.
Scale of ambition—and lessons from other countries
The Polish TSO’s (PSE) plan through 2036 assumes a major build-out: 43 GW of solar, 28 GW of onshore wind, and nearly 14 GW of offshore wind. But PV operates effectively at only 10–12%, and Poland already has a meaningful share of solar in its mix. Onshore wind, by contrast, reaches 25–35% effective utilization. Combined with relatively low construction costs—and therefore the lowest cost of produced electricity—this makes it an extremely attractive pillar of the energy mix. Offshore wind can approach 50% productivity, but the cost of its electricity is several times higher than “land-based” wind.
It’s no surprise that Germany and Denmark achieve a much higher RES share in electricity generation. Both countries rely primarily on onshore wind. Denmark has only about 2.9% of its wind capacity offshore, yet still delivers the highest renewable share in electricity generation in Europe. The deciding factor is structure, not nominal capacity.
Offshore wind and planned nuclear power are necessary elements of the future mix, but they won’t automatically improve the efficiency of the entire system. That role is played by onshore wind—which in Poland remains constrained by regulations, a lack of clear policy, and contradictory messaging from government administration and subordinate institutions.
A decade of 10H—and a decade of building new barriers
In 2016, the “10H rule” effectively stopped onshore wind development. In 2023, wind received a “safe distance” requirement of 700 meters from residential buildings. Promises to fully remove the legacy of 10H have still not been fulfilled. There are ongoing disputes over how the 700-meter rule should be interpreted by Regional Directorates for Environmental Protection. In some cases, projects remain blocked even when the 700-meter condition is met.
Constant changes to planning law significantly hinder project development. General plans, shifting deadlines, the introduction of the Integrated Investment Plan (ZPI), and the prospect of Accelerated RES Development Areas (OPRO) create a regulatory environment that is chaotic in a way Poland hasn’t seen before. Add to this increasingly lengthy environmental procedures, plus new guidelines for the wind sector introduced without meaningful consultation. And all of this was supposed to be “deregulation,” acceleration, and a push for renewables.
Grid connections and the “freezing” of the network
Grid connections remain a major barrier to renewable growth. Procedures are slow. The result is a situation where capacity is ready and projects are developed, but operators cannot connect them. Unlocking “stranded capacity,” accelerating connection decisions, and establishing clear rules for cooperation with grid operators are essential if RES growth is to continue. Discussions are ongoing, and possible changes to energy law could alter the situation—but real assessment will only be possible once new regulations enter into force.
Blocking onshore wind vs. national security
No one disputes the need to focus today on building a state resilient to instability and threats from the East. But a strong and secure state is also one with distributed energy—hard to destroy quickly. Onshore wind provides exactly that advantage. That is why it is difficult to understand why vast areas of Poland are being excluded from the possibility of building wind farms. This affects not only new wind capacity, but also future repowering of existing assets.
There is hope for constructive dialogue here. Restrictions arising from defense needs are understandable—but they must be based on transparent rules. Today, unpredictability is a bigger problem than the restrictions themselves.
Green fuels
The challenges facing onshore wind are not only about optimizing the electricity mix. Blocking the cheapest source of electricity brings no benefit to the state or citizens. Because wind technology is mature and cost-effective, its potential extends well beyond power generation. It enables the conversion of surplus electricity into green fuels. Unlike coal, oil, or gas, these fuels would not have to be imported from distant parts of the world—they could be produced locally through the synergy of renewables and biogas plants.
Yet in a large, agricultural country like Poland, the biogas sector remains significantly underdeveloped. As a result, Poland is wasting the enormous potential of local communities and missing a major opportunity to build a circular economy—something neighbors are already doing successfully. In many cases, it would be enough simply to stop obstructing this technology.
Conclusions for 2026
The year 2026 could become a turning point for Poland’s energy transition. The country has already built a significant scale of renewable capacity, but this has not yet translated into the kind of efficiency achieved by Europe’s leaders. To change that, Poland needs not only investment in new technologies, but above all stable rules, orderly planning, efficient procedures, and a clear vision for the structure of the energy mix.
Poland has the potential—provided it boldly supports solutions that truly improve the energy balance. The key is to create conditions for the development of onshore wind and energy storage, while also supporting system flexibility and local production of green fuels. Only then can renewables fully strengthen national energy security, economic competitiveness, and lower electricity costs for consumers.
The transition is already underway. Now Poland must ensure it is effective.
Source: CEO.com.pl (original Polish version)
