Emerging Markets: Lublin, Szczecin, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszów, Białystok, Kielce are increasingly catching the attention of experts. The year 2024 was marked by dynamic growth in these cities – the housing supply reached 13,300 apartments, and sales reached 8,000. At the same time, prices have come closer to the average rates of larger cities, and in some cases, even exceeded them, reaching over 13,000 PLN per square meter.
Record-High Supply
By the end of December 2024, the supply of apartments from developers in the seven largest Polish markets reached nearly 56,000 units. Notably, record numbers were also seen in emerging markets, with 13,300 apartments, a 35% increase compared to the previous year. Among them, Lublin had the largest supply, with over 3,800 apartments available at the end of the year, accounting for 29% of the total supply in the emerging markets.
Szczecin secured second place with over 3,100 apartments, reflecting a 50% increase in supply compared to the previous year. Bydgoszcz ranked third, offering 2,200 new apartments. It’s important to note, however, that the supply in the capital of the Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship remained stable and was similar to 2023 levels. On the other hand, Kielce had the fewest apartments available at the end of December 2024, with only 1,100. However, the number of developer apartments available in Kielce had doubled compared to the end of 2023.
In Search of a Higher Standard
In 2024, developers in emerging markets introduced over 10,500 new apartments, with a significant portion – as many as 3,000 – located in Lublin. When analyzing data from the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, a striking 220% increase in new investments was observed in Kielce. Developers in Białystok increased the supply by 70%, and in Rzeszów, the number of apartments introduced grew by 33%.
“The 33% increase in supply on emerging markets shows that the market has started to recognize this group of clients from smaller towns who want to raise their living standards and had limited choices in previous years. We see that in 2024, a significant portion of buyers were individuals upgrading their current homes. This doesn’t necessarily mean opting for a larger apartment or a more central location, but rather, for example, the availability of underground parking in a new development or a higher energy standard of the building. It can thus be said that emerging markets differ from major ones like Warsaw, Poznań, or Kraków in terms of the type of customers they attract,” notes Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Director of Market Research at Otodom Analytics.
The situation in other emerging markets was somewhat different. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number of new apartments in Lublin, Bydgoszcz, and Szczecin fell by 30-70% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. However, it’s worth noting that despite this, a substantial number of developer apartments were introduced in these cities. Szczecin saw over 1,900 new apartments, while Lublin and Bydgoszcz had around 1,300 to 1,400 new units.
Could sales levels have been a factor motivating developers to introduce new apartments? In 2024, a total of nearly 8,000 apartments were sold across six emerging markets, with 30% of these transactions taking place in Lublin. In comparison, in Warsaw, the largest housing market in Poland, 12,000 apartments were sold during the same period. Experts, however, emphasize that considering the scale and potential of these markets, the results achieved are satisfactory.
Even 13,000 PLN per Square Meter
Can buyers in emerging markets expect lower prices than in major cities? Not necessarily. Szczecin remains the leader in terms of prices in smaller cities, with an average price of 13,400 PLN per square meter in December. This is about 800 PLN more per square meter than in Poznań, around 1,000 PLN more than in Katowice, and over 2,000 PLN more than in Łódź. Prices in Lublin, Kielce, and Bydgoszcz are somewhat lower, with buyers expecting to pay around 10,000 to 10,500 PLN per square meter. On the other hand, apartments in Rzeszów and Białystok are, on average, 1,000 PLN cheaper per square meter.
Comparing year-on-year average prices in these cities, the price growth dynamics are similar to the largest Polish markets. The highest year-on-year price increase, 25%, was seen in Kielce. In Bydgoszcz, the increase was 12%, in Lublin and Rzeszów, it was 7-8%, while in Białystok and Szczecin, it was about 5%.