The past year, 2025, was a period of deep contradictions for our economy. On one hand, Poland experienced some of the fastest GDP growth in the entire European Union; on the other, Polish companies grappled with numerous challenges. As a result, according to a report by Coface, as many as 6,566 businesses declared insolvency. This figure is 17.8% higher than in 2024. What factors caused such a dynamic spike in insolvencies despite a favorable economic climate?
Most of the difficulties encountered by the Polish economy in 2025 were external. The year began with an escalation of trade wars—high tariffs and prolonged uncertainty regarding final customs policies continue to weigh heavily on our exports. These trade disputes also carry less direct consequences: Chinese exporters, facing high tariffs in the U.S. market, redirected a significant portion of their overproduction to EU countries, exerting intense competitive pressure on European manufacturers. Furthermore, the ongoing stagnation in Germany remains a critical factor, as it is Poland’s largest trading partner. It is also worth noting that the high number of insolvent firms was influenced by greater awareness among entrepreneurs, who are increasingly choosing restructuring proceedings over bankruptcy.
A Two-Speed Economy
The year 2025 confirmed that Poland is operating as a “two-speed economy.” We witnessed significant GDP growth—estimated by Coface at 3.6%—while simultaneously seeing the deteriorating financial health of many enterprises. What accounts for this discrepancy?
“Despite unfavorable external conditions, Poland remained the fastest-growing large economy in the EU and advanced into the ranks of the world’s 20 largest economies. This resilience was possible thanks to a relatively large domestic market and a highly diversified geographic and product structure of Polish exports,” says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist at Coface for Poland and the CEE Region. “Unfortunately, the general economic improvement was unable to offset the mounting cost pressures faced by Polish companies. Wage dynamics, though clearly slowing down throughout the year, still outpaced productivity growth. Consequently, financial results and average sales profitability remained below 2022–2023 levels,” the expert adds.
Insolvencies by Sector
The sectors most affected during 2025 were services and construction. The former accounts for the largest share of total insolvencies (1,859 enterprises, or 28% of the total). The latter continues to record some of the highest year-on-year growth rates (1,155 enterprises, 18% of the total).
“Manufacturing sectors were certainly negatively impacted by global market events, including the economic downturn in the Eurozone, the influx of imported goods—mainly from Asia—and foreign trade turbulence triggered by US-initiated trade wars,” says Paweł Tobis, Vice President for Operations and Risk Assessment at Coface. “On the other hand, we must note the role of a high cost base—the result of wage changes and rising fixed costs—which largely contributes to the troubles of entrepreneurs in sectors such as retail and services.”
What Awaits Polish Companies in 2026?
Coface experts indicate that the number of insolvencies in the coming months will be largely shaped by the growing share of restructurings within insolvency proceedings. This suggests that in 2026, the number of businesses facing liquidity problems will likely rise to approximately 7,500 cases. However, thanks to a favorable macroeconomic environment, the pace of this growth should significantly decelerate compared to the 2023–2025 period.
And what about the state of the Polish economy?
“In 2026, we can count on relatively high economic growth dynamics. According to our forecasts, GDP growth will accelerate to 3.8%. The main driver of growth will likely be investment, while additional support should come from abroad this time. Fiscal spending in Germany should gradually revive their economy and simultaneously stimulate demand for Polish exporters,” predicts Dr. Mateusz Dadej. “The key question for 2026 is whether we will remain a two-speed economy. This past year showed that the relationship between GDP growth and the financial condition of enterprises is no longer as simple or direct as it once was. However, several factors allow for moderate optimism regarding the situation of firms—especially on the cost side. Wage dynamics should continue to slow significantly and align more closely with productivity growth. Currently, there is also a favorable downward trend in energy prices, and the cost of external financing is markedly lower than in 2025,” the expert concludes.
