The Earth has broken another record for greenhouse gas emissions. In 2024, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by 3.58 ppm, reaching a total value of 427 ppm. The increase this year may be even faster, which practically crosses out the chances of achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. “We have already crossed several dangerous climatic tipping points. We fear the next ones, which could release significantly more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” says Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak, a member of the Climate Council of the UN Global Compact Network Poland.
“2024 was the warmest year in the history of our measurements. This is stated by all serious centers that deal with climate data analysis. For the first time in history, we crossed the warming threshold of 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era. We have the highest concentrations of carbon dioxide and the highest global ocean surface temperature,” says Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak in an interview with the Newseria agency.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports that each of the last 10 years (2015–2024) was one of the 10 warmest years in measurement history. The last 12 months (from February 2024 to January 2025) were 0.73°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average and 1.61°C above the 1850–1900 average, taken as pre-industrial level. A new record for the average daily global temperature was reached on July 22, 2024 – according to ERA5 data, the average temperature that day was 17.16°C. The average annual sea surface temperature, excluding polar regions, also reached a record high of 20.87°C.
“To break it down into simpler terms, what does this mean for us specifically, for me the most glaring example and illustration of that year is that in the first decade of July, 44% of the global population experienced heat stress, which means a perceived temperature of above 32°C. You can see how much of a global and dangerous phenomenon this is, which we should definitely fight against. Anomalies concerning the number of days with heat stress reached 25 days, which means we had 25 more hot days where we did not feel good and which pose a threat to the health and lives of many people,” says the atmospheric physicist and climate change expert.
The temperature increase is due to record carbon dioxide emissions. C3S analysis shows that CO2 concentration last year was record high, rose by 2.9 ppm, and amounted to 422 ppm (parts per million). According to scientists at the British Met Office, the “safe” concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 350 ppm, while maintaining values below 430 ppm is necessary to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, in line with the guidelines of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, new data indicate that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not only increasing but is happening faster than ever before. Scientists suggest that this increase is due to large forest fires, ongoing deforestation, and record fossil fuel emissions.
“The primary cause of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions is us, humans — these are anthropogenic emissions, not natural ones. We often encounter the myth that it’s not humans but volcanoes, and they are responsible for 1% of CO2 emissions worldwide, whereas the rest is people, our activities, our carbon footprint, and our ever-increasing energy consumption, which, unfortunately, still relies on fossil fuels,” argues Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak.
The Science Portal estimates, based on various available studies, that Italy’s Etna, considered one of the world’s most active volcanoes, emits about 9,000 tons of carbon dioxide per day, or just over 3 million tons per year. For comparison, Poland’s largest coal power plant emits 96,000 tons of CO2 per day, i.e., ten times as much as Etna. In 2022, all global industrial processes, energy, and transport were responsible for emitting around 37 billion tons of CO2. Even if we include underwater volcanoes and the emission of gases seeping through the soil, the total amount of carbon dioxide from volcanic sources is 200–250 million tons per year, less than 1% of annual anthropogenic emissions.
“When we look at the concentrations of carbon dioxide and the sharp rise in temperature and combine these graphs, we see a significant dependence. In addition, we need to add the physicochemical properties of carbon dioxide particles, which are transparent to visible radiation emitted by the sun, and absorb infrared radiation that the Earth emits. If we add these particles, which are more and more absorbing thermal radiation, we heat what is under the layer of gases,” explains the climate change expert.
With progressing global warming, the frequency of such phenomena as flash floods, flooding, storms, hurricanes, hailstorms, fires, heatwaves, and droughts intensifies. Last year, high global temperatures in combination with record levels of water vapor in the atmosphere meant unprecedented heat waves and intense rainfall. Experts warn that a global temperature increase of 2°C by 2050 will mean that heat waves occur up to four times more frequently than in the pre-industrial period, and their intensity will also increase. Extreme droughts will appear 2.4 times more frequently.
“The number of extreme phenomena is increasing: we had the flood of the millennium in Poland, which came 30 years after the first major flood, dangerous flooding in northern Italy, the so-called gota fria situation, that is, very heavy rainfall in Spain. Basically, all year round we report disasters related to extreme weather phenomena, which of course have always existed, but they are now gaining strength precisely because there is more energy accumulated in the climate system. Remember, we are simply emitting more and more greenhouse gases, which do not escape but remain in the atmosphere,” says Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak.
Scientists argue that the situation is worsening, and the year 2025 could bring new record emissions of CO2 and methane.
“We have already crossed several critical points. Glaciers are melting, we see the loss of ice sheets, the loss of glaciers in West Antarctica, we see the loss of ice cover in the North Pole,” says UN GCNP expert.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that around Antarctica, the range of sea ice reached record low or near record low values for most of 2024. In the Arctic, the sea ice extent was relatively close to the 1991–2020 average until July, but then dropped significantly below the average in the following months.
“We are afraid of thawing permafrost because it is a huge source of carbon and methane. We are afraid of crossing the next critical points, because while at the moment we are still able to predict and adapt to the effects of climate change, by releasing huge amounts of greenhouse gases accumulated in permafrost, certain processes will not be stopped,” emphasizes Dr. Joanna Remiszewska-Michalak. “Logic suggests that we have no choice but to take climate issues seriously. It is not the time to deny science.”
