The banking sector closed last year with a record-breaking mortgage lending performance, granting housing loans with a total value exceeding PLN 103 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, banks issued more than 64,000 loans worth over PLN 29 billion, according to the latest AMRON-SARFiN Report. This result was nearly identical to the previous quarter, but significantly higher than in the same period a year earlier.
At the end of 2025, Poland’s credit market remained in good condition. Between October and December, banks granted 64,228 housing loans with a total value of more than PLN 29 billion. While this was almost the same as in the previous quarter, it represented a substantial increase compared to the corresponding period a year earlier—up 37% in terms of the number of loans and 47% in value.
At the same time, the total value of the outstanding mortgage portfolio rose to over PLN 512 billion, despite a continued decline in the number of active loans. At the end of 2025, the number of active mortgage agreements in Poland stood at 2.149 million, down by as much as 4% year-on-year. Compared to the record level of the mortgage portfolio at the end of 2021, the number of active loan agreements has fallen by nearly 400,000. However, taking into account full-year credit market data, the real estate market can be described as stabilizing.
“It was a good year. The business cycle that began in 2015 came to a calm close. There were no shocks or disruptions, either external or internal. Participants in the housing market knew from the outset that the government was unlikely to provide additional financial support to potential homebuyers. Step by step, announcements and expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council were fulfilled,” says Dr. Jacek Furga, Chairman of the Real Estate Financing Committee of the Polish Bank Association and President of the Center for Banking Processes and Information.
A significant factor for both the housing and credit markets was the gradual rebuilding of housing demand.
“Fortunately, despite a series of six interest rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland—amounting to a total of 175 basis points over the year, bringing the reference rate down to 4%—there was no sudden surge in demand,” adds Dr. Jacek Furga.
Stability in the housing and credit markets was also supported by the long-term relationship between rising incomes and housing price growth, which helped avoid market and social tensions. Increasingly attractive mortgage conditions encouraged more than 232,000 people to meet their housing needs through mortgage financing.
The banking sector ended the year with a record mortgage lending volume exceeding PLN 103 billion. This high lending volume in 2025 was driven by a steadily rising average mortgage value, which reached PLN 455,100 at the end of the year.
The solid financial standing of new borrowers is also reflected in shorter repayment periods for newly contracted loans. The quality of the mortgage portfolio has improved as well. The share of non-performing loans in the total mortgage portfolio fell to a record low of 1.34% at the end of 2025.
An analysis of transaction price changes over the past four to five quarters indicates stabilization, with minor quarterly fluctuations of 1–2% either up or down. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Wrocław and Kraków recorded slight declines of less than 1.5%. Warsaw maintained its position as the most expensive market, with an average price exceeding PLN 15,200 per square meter and a moderate quarterly increase of 1.5% compared to the third quarter of last year. Meanwhile, Poznań, posting the highest quarterly growth rate of 2.6%, appears to be catching up with other major metropolitan areas, driven by a dynamic labor market and limited availability of new land in attractive locations. On an annual basis, Wrocław was the only market to record a price decline (down 3.2%). In Kraków, prices returned to last year’s levels, while in other agglomerations annual price changes were positive—the largest in Gdańsk, at a solid 3.5%.
The past year also turned out to be better for developers than expected. The sale of more than 40,700 apartments across the seven largest development markets in 2025 positively surprised experts. This represents a 9% improvement over 2024. Developers launched projects involving the construction of 44,800 new apartments. The excess of new supply over sales resulted in a second consecutive year of growth in the developer housing offer, which reached 62,100 units across the seven largest markets at the end of December 2025.
In summarizing the past year, it is also worth mentioning the dynamic expansion of the interbank real estate market database—AMRON System. In total, the AMRON III database grew by more than 400,500 new records last year, reaching over 4.8 million entries.
“Last year, we provided AMRON III system participants with new functionalities, statistical and analytical reports, including the AVM report—an automated property valuation tool. The new solutions were well received by banks. They are increasingly using the new reports and—what is even more important—have significantly strengthened the AMRON database by contributing more than 367,000 additional records,” says Dr. Jacek Furga.
The latest AMRON-SARFiN Report also includes forecasts for 2026. According to experts, the market is expected to see at least one more cut in the NBP reference rate in the coming year. Combined with stable pricing from developers and the observed downward correction in secondary market prices, this should ensure balanced development in both the mortgage and development sectors. Interest rates at the end of 2026 are expected to be no higher than 3.5%, while a target rate of 3% in 2027 appears realistic. However, it should be noted that a significant increase in banks’ tax burdens this year does not bode well for expectations that further interest rate cuts will translate into lower mortgage costs.
Source: Manager Plus
