As of the end of 2024, Ukraine’s reconstruction will require more than half a trillion euros, with Russia continuing to inflict further damage. The largest financial needs lie in the housing and transport sectors, but energy, trade, and industry are also heavily affected. While Polish businesses are already significantly engaged in Ukraine, their involvement could grow even more in the reconstruction phase. According to the First Vice President of Kredobank (a Ukrainian bank owned by the PKO Bank Polski Group), companies should look for partners both in Poland and in Ukraine to participate in the rebuilding process.
“It’s hard to say exactly how much money will be needed, because we have to consider who will actually provide those funds. But looking at the Marshall Plan after World War II, we’re definitely talking about billions—possibly even trillions—dedicated to Ukraine’s recovery,” said Jarosław Bełdowski, First Vice President of Kredobank, in an interview with Newseria. “But we should be cautious and wait for official announcements, as this will be a coordinated, multilateral effort—not something a single government will do alone.”
A joint report by the Ukrainian government, World Bank Group, European Commission, and United Nations, published three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, estimates the total reconstruction cost at $524 billion (or €506 billion) over the next decade. This is roughly 2.8 times Ukraine’s estimated nominal GDP for 2023. The largest needs are in:
- Housing (€81 billion),
- Transport (€75 billion),
- Energy and Mining (€66 billion),
- Trade and Industry (€62 billion), and
- Agriculture (€53 billion).
The cost of debris clearance and management alone amounts to nearly €12.6 billion.
“We need to overcome egoism in the sense that we must look for partnerships not only in Poland. Companies should form project consortia to diversify risk and also seek partners within Ukraine,” said Bełdowski. “It’s important to build relationships locally now, be on the ground, and find partners who can help execute investment plans.”
At the 17th European Economic Congress, the Polish-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce presented a report titled “Investments During Full-Scale War: A Testament to Polish Solidarity”. According to the report, the cumulative value of Polish investments in Ukraine reached $780 million by the end of 2023, accounting for 2.6% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country—placing Poland 10th among foreign investors. However, as the authors note, some leading investors may function more as holding locations for capital flowing out of Ukraine.
Compared to the $38 billion that Polish firms have invested abroad overall, Ukraine remains a promising market. The report also highlights that since the war began, 300 new companies with Polish capital have been established in Ukraine, giving Poland third place in terms of the number of new foreign companies. Additionally, trade performance has improved, further emphasizing Ukraine’s growing role as a strategic economic partner for Poland.
The Chamber emphasized that these figures are expected to change thanks to newly launched support programs. One of the key tools is the EU’s Ukraine Facility, coordinated in Poland by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK). The initiative includes:
- €265 million in guarantees, and
- €56–60 million in grants for businesses and local governments.
In April, BGK also launched the “Loan for Ukraine Reconstruction” program. Meanwhile, the Polish Export Credit Agency (KUKE) is preparing to launch a large-scale reinsurance project to cover transport insurance risks within Ukraine.
“The key lies in partnerships and in the people already there—people who also share our values,” Bełdowski emphasized. “In Poland, companies should approach institutions already involved in Ukraine. The Polish Development Fund (PFR), KUKE, and BGK are all worth contacting. And of course, if someone has a business relationship with PKO BP, that can also be a channel to reach us—either through PKO or directly.”
