Expectations are rising ahead of the October meeting of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC). Some experts believe another monetary easing move could be on the table, though cautionary voices are also being heard within the Council. Certain economists estimate a 50% chance of a rate cut in October, with the possibility of an additional 25 basis point reduction before year-end. Others argue that November is a more likely timing, provided inflation remains stable and the fiscal environment does not deteriorate.
Some Council members stress that a rate cut in October would be premature and prefer to wait for more economic data. In their view, any reductions should be minimal and cautious to avoid fueling inflationary risks. This stance contrasts with a more dovish approach, which signals greater openness to earlier policy loosening.
Macroeconomic analyses point out that the disinflation process is progressing, but policymakers are clearly showing more caution than at the end of last year. Many economists also note that financial markets have already largely priced in the scenario of further cuts, meaning that the post-meeting press conference could prove more influential than the brief official communiqué.
Since the beginning of the year, interest rates have already been cut several times, with the reference rate now at 4.75%. This makes every further move a delicate balance – cuts that are too rapid could undermine inflation expectations, while an overly long pause could dampen economic recovery.
The most realistic scenario remains a 25 basis point reduction this autumn, though it is uncertain whether it will occur in October or November. At the same time, the MPC may still decide to hold off if incoming inflation or budget data turn out less favorable.
Source: CEO.com.pl
