A rainy summer is not favorable for beer sales, both in Poland and worldwide. Last week, we observed significant declines on stock markets affecting the largest global beer producers. Shares of Anheuser-Busch and Heineken experienced corrections of about 13%. This was a reaction to weaker sales results — for Heineken in Europe, and for Anheuser-Busch in Brazil and China.
Changing consumer habits, especially among younger generations, pose an increasing challenge for breweries. Global data show a clear trend of declining alcohol consumption — over the past 20 years, the global share of adults under 35 who report drinking alcohol has fallen from 72% to 62%. In Poland, this trend is also evident, confirmed by the growing popularity of non-alcoholic beer, whose sales increased by as much as 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.
The weather in Poland is also unfavorable for beer producers. This year’s summer has been exceptionally rainy, resulting in lower demand during the peak season. This may deepen the problems the industry has faced for some time. According to data from the Association of Employers of the Brewing Industry, beer sales dropped by 6% in the first half of the year.
This is reflected in the recent results of the two largest global brewing companies — Heineken and Anheuser-Busch. Both companies reported declining beer sales volumes while revenues increased, mainly due to price hikes.
Heineken, which generates about 35% of its sales in Europe, felt the declines most strongly in that region. Sales volumes there fell by as much as 4.8%, contributing to an overall global decline of 0.4% year-on-year. Although this is an improvement compared to the first quarter, it remains below market expectations. Due to disappointing results, the company’s share price fell 12.8% in the past week, despite a 7.4% increase in operating profit.
Anheuser-Busch suffered even more: its shares lost 13.7% in one week. In Q2, sales volume dropped 1.9%, significantly missing analysts’ expectations of just a 0.3% decline. The problems were mainly concentrated in the Chinese and Brazilian markets. Despite the difficult environment, the company increased revenues by 3% to $15 billion and operating profit by 6.5%. However, these increases resulted from price hikes rather than improved demand, raising investor concerns about future profitability. Additionally, the company’s operations in the U.S. are burdened by 50% aluminum tariffs affecting margins and valuation.
Both companies are currently valued relatively low — the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.5 for Heineken and 15.5 for Anheuser-Busch. Despite revenue growth, the market clearly doubts the sustainability of this trend, as it is not accompanied by real sales growth. Increasingly, it seems the brewing industry is entering a period of stagnation — with limited growth potential and margin pressure caused by rising raw material costs and changing consumer preferences. It is worth noting, however, that premium beer brands such as Stella Artois and Corona remain more resilient to sales declines compared to the broader market.
The brewing sector, traditionally seen as defensive and stable, now faces significant structural challenges. Declining alcohol consumption among young adults, rising operating costs, heavy dependence on increasingly variable weather, and limited sales volume growth create a mix discouraging investors. For those seeking investment opportunities, this may require a selective approach — especially regarding companies with strong positions in emerging markets or those that can successfully shift to non-alcoholic products.
Author: Paweł Majtkowski, eToro analyst in Poland
