A Warsaw Regional Court ruling that ended the Mirbud–Torpol consortium’s participation in a Rail Baltica tender is clearly negative for Mirbud but neutral or slightly positive for Torpol, according to analysts at Trigon DM.
The court dismissed the consortium’s complaint over its exclusion from the tender to modernise the E75 Rail Baltica line between Białystok and Ełk. The consortium’s offer, worth around PLN 4.6 billion gross, had previously been considered the most advantageous.
The exclusion stemmed from an environmental penalty of PLN 15,000. Following the court ruling, a consortium comprising Track Tec, Intop and Unibep is closest to signing the contract, with an offer worth about PLN 5.2 billion gross.
Trigon sees a broader problem for Mirbud
According to Trigon, the key issue for Mirbud is not only the loss of this single contract but the potential impact on its railway strategy. Analysts say the company will need to complete a self-cleaning procedure intended to reduce the risk of exclusion from future public procurement tenders.
Trigon notes that Mirbud has not secured a large railway contract of major importance to the group since acquiring Transkol. That makes it harder to justify substantial capital committed to the segment and raises questions about the pace of its railway expansion.
The brokerage nevertheless points to Mirbud’s substantial order backlog in other areas and expects growth in Polish construction and assembly output in 2027.
Limited impact on Torpol
Trigon’s assessment of Torpol is more favourable. The brokerage had not included the Rail Baltica contract in its forecasts for the company, so the ruling does not materially weaken its earnings outlook. Analysts also point to Torpol’s selective approach to bidding as supportive of order-book quality and margins.
Source: Trigon DM, Flash Note, 4 September 2026. This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.
